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<DIV><FONT size=2>Continuous and adjusted contracts are not synonymous. My
"continuous unadjusted" contracts have no price adjustment ... therefor prices
are "real" - those actually traded.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Philip
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx";
title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A> ; <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Realtraders</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, October 07, 1999 8:55
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: FUTR - Continuous contract
data for seasonal grains</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE="CITE"><FONT size=-1>For trading (I'm not a system trader)
I use continuous unadjusted to preserve the original price action and
patterns and keep an eye on the gaps caused by joining contracts. I use the
continuos for monitoring long term monthly and weekly resistance, support
and patterns.</FONT><FONT size=-1></FONT>
<P><B><FONT color=#3333ff><FONT size=-1>. . . why do you use the continuous
charts for weekly and monthly work, when virtually all of the gaps disappear
on these compressions and you would profit from having "real" (actually
traded) numbers to base your S/R calcualtions on? Especially on
long-term issues, the longer the look back the greater the distortion on
continuous charts.</FONT></FONT></B><B><FONT color=#3333ff><FONT
size=-1></FONT></FONT></B>
<P><B><FONT color=#3333ff><FONT size=-1>If you take a continuous weekly
chart and identify, say, a support level 6 or 8 months ago, the price you
read off the chart may never have been actually traded because of the
formula used to smooth the charts.</FONT></FONT></B><B><FONT
color=#3333ff><FONT size=-1></FONT></FONT></B>
<P><B><FONT color=#3333ff><FONT size=-1>Try this: drop your continuous
monthly chart in the same window with your non-adjusted monthly chart -- use
sugar, since your expressed some views on that market recently (see
GIF). The numbers are just not the same. You'd feel comfortable
taking monthly S/R levels off the continuous
chart?</FONT></FONT></B><B><FONT color=#3333ff><FONT
size=-1></FONT></FONT></B>
<P><B><FONT color=#3333ff><FONT
size=-1>Philip</FONT></FONT></B></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
<HR>
<P></P>
<P>
<CENTER><IMG
src="CID:{0BD4C4F9-7BED-11D3-A202-000000000000}/Sugar monthy.gif"></CENTER></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Oct 07 10:16:14 1999
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From: "Dennis Peterson" <dpeterson@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "List" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>,
"Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>,
"Terry S. Smith" <tesla@xxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: In lieu of crash(trash) talk
Date: Thu, 7 Oct 1999 10:55:14 -0500
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<DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=840382514-07101999><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>I have
been following the Wheat comments with much interest, for I am of the opinion
that the Wheat "cash" market is putting a long term bottom in the form
of a Bullish Head & Shoulders pattern<SPAN class=820220815-07101999><FONT
color=#000000 face=Arial size=2> (one more slight pullback could be the right
shoulder)</FONT></SPAN>. I like to run Elliott Wave software on a <A
href="http://marketinterface.net/W_forecast.weekly.gif";>five year weekly cash
chart</A>, and it indicates that the Bear Market that started in April of 1996
is coming to an end<SPAN class=820220815-07101999><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial
size=2> (one more pullback could be wave five of wave five)</FONT></SPAN>.
When I see a setup like this I then look to a momentum oscillator on the <A
href="http://marketinterface.net/W_obos.gif";>weekly cash and the daily nearby
futures</A>. If the weekly cash oscillator is trending up from a<SPAN
class=820220815-07101999><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>n
</FONT></SPAN>oversold condition, I then look to the daily momentum oscillator
for a very oversold condition to time the trade with.<SPAN
class=820220815-07101999><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
</FONT></SPAN>Currently my charts indicate that all of the above conditions have
been met<SPAN class=820220815-07101999><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
(except for a clear pattern of a right shoulder on the weekly cash)
</FONT></SPAN>... now the hard part<SPAN class=820220815-07101999><FONT
color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>. Do I start entering long trades now or
do I stand aside and wait for the weekly cash to pullback just a little more in
order to complete the Elliott Wave pattern or the Right Shoulder ... then on the
other hand the futures could move higher (for a while) as the cash works lower
... could get out the old coin.</FONT></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=840382514-07101999><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=820220815-07101999><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Tahoma size=2><SPAN class=840382514-07101999><FONT color=#000000
face=Arial size=2>Dennis Peterson</FONT></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Tahoma size=2><SPAN class=840382514-07101999><FONT color=#000000
face=Arial size=2></FONT></SPAN></FONT><SPAN class=840382514-07101999><FONT
color=#000000 face=Arial size=2><A
href="http://marketinterface.net/index.htm";>Market
Interface</A></FONT></SPAN></DIV></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE>
<DIV align=left class=OutlookMessageHeader DIR = LTR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On
Behalf Of </B>Terry S. Smith<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 06, 1999
3:53 PM<BR><B>To:</B> Steve Karnish; List;
metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: In lieu of crash(trash)
talk<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Talking about real trades here is one I am putting on
beginning this week. I have begun scaling into the wheat market. It looks
like the grains are heading for a double bottom and may take out
contract lows. I am buying the March 320 calls on every 10 cent decline in
the wheat market beginning at 280. Buying equal amounts at 280, 270, 260. It
has been my experience that when markets RE-TEST multi-year lows, that
is the time to buy them. Since I have no idea where the grains will
eventually bottom I will scale into the trade. Happy
trading. </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Steve
Karnish</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>List</A> ; <A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 06, 1999
9:22 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> In lieu of crash(trash)
talk</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>List,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>From time to time, traders actually discuss
"real" trades on this forum (the current sugar debate).
This is a really great "idea" that should be explored on a
daily basis. Think of it: a place where
"realtraders" can exchange "real trading"
ideas. It's a concept that could catch on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For those who monitor real trades in the
grain market:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>9/29: Went short: corn (214.75), oats
(116.00), & wheat (286.50); (December contracts)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10/6: Covered and went long oats
(110.50)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10/7: A close below 203 in Dec. corn
and 262.25 in Dec. wheat triggers long positions tomorrow.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This has little to do with the crash of
'29, Alan Green"spun", or all those "politicos"
conspiring to make my life miserable in the gold market. But,
guess what? Real people are in these real trades, making real
money, not letting the "news" influence their approach, and
they are certainly not sitting around theorizing about the rise and fall
of US economy. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Steve Karnish<BR>Cedar Creek Trading<BR><A
href="http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/";>http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/</A></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Oct 07 10:29:39 1999
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Date: Thu, 07 Oct 1999 10:57:21 -0500
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx
From: BobsKC <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Spinning Financial Illusions - The Story of Bubblenomics
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Status:
If Fleckenstein still has money or clients, they probably get together on
weekends to play jacks and eat crow.
Bob
At 08:40 AM 10/7/99 -0400, BruceB wrote:
>James, just out of curiosity, how much would my account be down right now if
>I had gone short when Fleckenstein first became bearish? How much does the
>market have to fall before I even get back to break-even on his wonderful
>advice?
>
>Bruce
>
>
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