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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Earl,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Attached is a graphic representation of my last
five wheat trades and my current open position. Looking at these positions
you can see that in each case, there was a strong market move the day before my
position was taken (circled in beautiful "magenta"). Every trade was
proceeded by market movement that was contrary to the position taken the
following day. So I might ask, "Why wouldn't you want a weak close to
trigger a long in wheat"? </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I'm a mechanical swing trader who relies on
momentum oscillators and fibonacci retracements. This year the mechanical
approach (for wheat) has triggered 27 trades (approximately one trade every
seven trading days). It's traded 20 times successfully, and has posted 6
losses. The "possible 5th wave scenario" and deciding whether a patterns
are "terribly bullish" vs. "somewhat bullish" are subjective interpretations of
subjective technical approaches. Nothing wrong with most of the technical
disciplines...I'm a student/teacher/cheerleader of many. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>In any event, I no longer ponder the completion of
the fifth wave or whether the stochastic is going trying double back and produce
a "failure swing". I certainly don't care about crop conditions,
exports, carry over, etc. Within each technical discipline there is lots
of room for subjective opinion. Fundamentals were invented to create a
"fog" in the traders mind. Some may feel wonderful about the daily
challenge of applying subjective technical analysis to the markets...I gave it
up a long time ago and sleep better since that time. Some may feel that
fundamentals are important (good luck my little sheep).</FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>When the market bottoms and the fifth wave is
completed, I hope to be aboard (on the long side) so that
the "Elliot Wavers" will provide upside momentum. As we carry
off the "bottom", I will immediately be targeting my next short
position. Whatever tomorrow brings, I can assure you only one
thing: I will trade the market mechanically. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Earl, please keep us posted to your decisions in
the grain markets. Your astute comments are
always interesting. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><BR>Steve Karnish<BR>Cedar Creek
Trading</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Featuring: "Cybercast"<BR><A
href="http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/";>http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/</A>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Earl Adamy
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>List</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 06, 1999 10:27
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: In lieu of crash(trash)
talk</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I've been monitoring grains for a possible long position.
I'm curious as to why you would want a weak close to trigger long in wheat and
corn? Corn appears to have completed a possible 5th wave decline with two
closes under the 78% retracement which isn't terribly bullish. Of particular
note in corn is what (so far anyway) is a very tight double inside day
setup. Beans have a clearer wave structure however the 5th wave appears to be
incomplete. Meal is interesting looking. Can't make up my mind about
wheat.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Steve
Karnish</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>List</A> ; <A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 06, 1999 10:22
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> In lieu of crash(trash)
talk</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>List,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>From time to time, traders actually discuss
"real" trades on this forum (the current sugar debate). This is a
really great "idea" that should be explored on a daily basis. Think of
it: a place where "realtraders" can exchange "real trading"
ideas. It's a concept that could catch on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For those who monitor real trades in the grain
market:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>9/29: Went short: corn (214.75), oats
(116.00), & wheat (286.50); (December contracts)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10/6: Covered and went long oats
(110.50)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10/7: A close below 203 in Dec. corn and
262.25 in Dec. wheat triggers long positions tomorrow.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This has little to do with the crash of '29,
Alan Green"spun", or all those "politicos" conspiring to make my life
miserable in the gold market. But, guess what? Real people are
in these real trades, making real money, not letting the "news" influence
their approach, and they are certainly not sitting around theorizing about
the rise and fall of US economy. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Steve Karnish<BR>Cedar Creek Trading<BR><A
href="http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/";>http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/</A></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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