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Well, my dad and grandfather lived on a farm at the time, and most of the
people I have talked to in that era lived in a farm communities, and which
ones come out smelling like a rose.
Those that had little or no debt, and those that had cash stashed.
Those that had debt, were called due and few survived and those that did
were struggling for long time to come. Because the debt never changed in
value. Even tho the income went down the debt was the same. Those that
didn't and had cash bought land and businesses at ridiculously fire sale
prices. They did not make it big immediately, but when the economy took off
they zoomed holding to this many assets acquired thru low prices.
charley
----- Original Message -----
From: Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: 'Kohath' <kohath@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>; Earl Adamy
<eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, October 06, 1999 3:11 AM
Subject: AW: How to protect assets
> So what did those do in the 30s that were successful? Buying up all assets
at
> discounted prices? Some did succeed for sure at making a nice living, so
does
> anyone know what they did?
>
> Gwenn
>
> | -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
> | Von: Kohath [SMTP:kohath@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> | Gesendet am: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 7:39 PM
> | An: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx; Earl Adamy
> | Betreff: Re: How to protect assets
> |
> | As for making a living trading, I have to wonder -
> | stock and commodity exchange activity in the 30's all but dried up
resulting
> | in little or no liquidity.
> |
> | How true, to make money trading you need volitility. To get volitility
you
> | need buyers and sellers. To get buyers and sellers you need liquidity.
If
> | the liquidity is not there, no buyers, if no buyers, no sellers,
therefore
> | no liquidity, therefore no volitility, therefore no trading vehicle to
make
> | money. If there is a big pop, and yes, this bubble is the biggest so
far so
> | there should be an awful loud bang, then I would submit that traders,
for
> | the most part, will cease to exist until conditions improve.
> | Matt
> |
> | ----- Original Message -----
> | From: Earl Adamy
> | To: RealTraders Discussion Group
> | Sent: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 9:04 AM
> | Subject: Re: How to protect assets
> |
> |
> | I have studied this off and on in some detail over the past few years
and my
> | most educated conclusion is that intermediate to long term US treasuries
> | should provide the greatest safety and highest return. This was true in
the
> | early '30s and it was true more recently in Japan - in both cases long
term
> | rates were driven to near zero levels by lack of credit demand and
> | government efforts to stimulate the economy. Another avenue is carefully
> | selected non-US currencies (I would favor stable European currencies)
> | however one must not lose sight of the fact that a bursting of the US
bubble
> | is going to have world-wide consequences because of a) loss of the
world's
> | most voracious consumers and b) difficulty in actually repatriating the
> | debts accumulated by the huge US trade and balance of payments deficits.
The
> | most likely government action would be to crank up the printing presses
and
> | print loads of money thereby devaluing all US domestic and foreign debt
and
> | the US$ - keep in mind that the greatest portion of US external debt is
held
> | by Japan and China. Historically, precious metals have not proven to be
a
> | strong hedge during depressions or even major recessions although price
> | spikes in gold and gold stocks often precede a major decline in equities
so
> | they are a good leading indicator of trouble.
> |
> | The use of treasuries for hedging the equity markets has been
complicated by
> | the recent dramatic increases in interest rates resulting in loss of
both
> | income and principal. Overall, the bursting of the bubble is not a
pretty
> | sight to contemplate! As for making a living trading, I have to wonder -
> | stock and commodity exchange activity in the 30's all but dried up
resulting
> | in little or no liquidity.
> |
> | Earl
> |
> | ----- Original Message -----
> | From: Gary Fritz <fritz@xxxxxxxx>
> | To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> | Sent: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 8:52 AM
> | Subject: How to protect assets
> |
> |
> | > Earl wrote:
> | > > When the bubble does burst, as it inevitably will, the retirement
> | > > savings and pension plans of at least two generations will be
> | > > placed in jeopardy. Not only are these generations at risk of
> | > > losing their financial independence, but government tax coffers
> | > > shorn of the stock market tax bonanza will be incapable of
> | > > providing a safety net. Further, US workers will wake up to find
> | > > that few are in a position to support the huge US service economy
> | > > and that there are few manufacturing jobs remaining. In short, what
> | > > happened in Japan in 1989 won't begin to compare to what will
> | > > happen in the US when the bubble bursts.
> | >
> | > A very sobering prospect, indeed.
> | >
> | > I have wondered about the best way to protect one's assets against
> | > this kind of scenario. I don't have any idea how soon or how badly
> | > it's going to blow, but I agree with Earl that some kind of disaster
> | > is inevitable.
> | >
> | > As traders, it's part of our job to make sure we protect our assets.
> | > It does us little good to make lots of dollars in the market if those
> | > dollars are worthless.
> | >
> | > I think this would be a good topic of discussion. It's probably of
> | > most interest to U.S. traders, since it's our currency and our
> | > economy that have been so mismanaged and are likely to fall. But
> | > other countries are likely to suffer from the collapse as well, so
> | > all of us may benefit from the ideas.
> | >
> | > So: how should a trader protect his assets and his financial future?
> | >
> | > I think we're fortunate in that we should be able to continue to earn
> | > a living. No one is going to lay us off, and our employers will not
> | > go bankrupt. (I hope, anyway, since our employers is us. :-) As
> | > long as we can adjust our trading style to the new financial
> | > conditions we *should* be able to continue to pay the bills. We
> | > should probably be careful not to have too much money tied up at any
> | > one brokerage, since I imagine some of them are going to crack up
> | > when the fertilizer hits the fan.
> | >
> | > But what about our savings, our retirement plans, etc? Do we buy a
> | > stash of Krugerrands and gold eagles and bury them in the garden? Do
> | > we have to move our funds into SF-denominated Swiss accounts to
> | > protect them from a dollar debacle? How do we protect their value?
> | >
> | > And what of non-traders? My parents are in their 70's and asked me
> | > just this weekend how they should protect their modest retirement
> | > funds. I wasn't quite sure what to tell them but said I would think
> | > about it. Any suggestions?
> | >
> | > Thanks,
> | > Gary
> | >
> |
> |
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