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So what did those do in the 30s that were successful? Buying up all assets at
discounted prices? Some did succeed for sure at making a nice living, so does
anyone know what they did?
Gwenn
| -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
| Von: Kohath [SMTP:kohath@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
| Gesendet am: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 7:39 PM
| An: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx; Earl Adamy
| Betreff: Re: How to protect assets
|
| As for making a living trading, I have to wonder -
| stock and commodity exchange activity in the 30's all but dried up resulting
| in little or no liquidity.
|
| How true, to make money trading you need volitility. To get volitility you
| need buyers and sellers. To get buyers and sellers you need liquidity. If
| the liquidity is not there, no buyers, if no buyers, no sellers, therefore
| no liquidity, therefore no volitility, therefore no trading vehicle to make
| money. If there is a big pop, and yes, this bubble is the biggest so far so
| there should be an awful loud bang, then I would submit that traders, for
| the most part, will cease to exist until conditions improve.
| Matt
|
| ----- Original Message -----
| From: Earl Adamy
| To: RealTraders Discussion Group
| Sent: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 9:04 AM
| Subject: Re: How to protect assets
|
|
| I have studied this off and on in some detail over the past few years and my
| most educated conclusion is that intermediate to long term US treasuries
| should provide the greatest safety and highest return. This was true in the
| early '30s and it was true more recently in Japan - in both cases long term
| rates were driven to near zero levels by lack of credit demand and
| government efforts to stimulate the economy. Another avenue is carefully
| selected non-US currencies (I would favor stable European currencies)
| however one must not lose sight of the fact that a bursting of the US bubble
| is going to have world-wide consequences because of a) loss of the world's
| most voracious consumers and b) difficulty in actually repatriating the
| debts accumulated by the huge US trade and balance of payments deficits. The
| most likely government action would be to crank up the printing presses and
| print loads of money thereby devaluing all US domestic and foreign debt and
| the US$ - keep in mind that the greatest portion of US external debt is held
| by Japan and China. Historically, precious metals have not proven to be a
| strong hedge during depressions or even major recessions although price
| spikes in gold and gold stocks often precede a major decline in equities so
| they are a good leading indicator of trouble.
|
| The use of treasuries for hedging the equity markets has been complicated by
| the recent dramatic increases in interest rates resulting in loss of both
| income and principal. Overall, the bursting of the bubble is not a pretty
| sight to contemplate! As for making a living trading, I have to wonder -
| stock and commodity exchange activity in the 30's all but dried up resulting
| in little or no liquidity.
|
| Earl
|
| ----- Original Message -----
| From: Gary Fritz <fritz@xxxxxxxx>
| To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
| Sent: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 8:52 AM
| Subject: How to protect assets
|
|
| > Earl wrote:
| > > When the bubble does burst, as it inevitably will, the retirement
| > > savings and pension plans of at least two generations will be
| > > placed in jeopardy. Not only are these generations at risk of
| > > losing their financial independence, but government tax coffers
| > > shorn of the stock market tax bonanza will be incapable of
| > > providing a safety net. Further, US workers will wake up to find
| > > that few are in a position to support the huge US service economy
| > > and that there are few manufacturing jobs remaining. In short, what
| > > happened in Japan in 1989 won't begin to compare to what will
| > > happen in the US when the bubble bursts.
| >
| > A very sobering prospect, indeed.
| >
| > I have wondered about the best way to protect one's assets against
| > this kind of scenario. I don't have any idea how soon or how badly
| > it's going to blow, but I agree with Earl that some kind of disaster
| > is inevitable.
| >
| > As traders, it's part of our job to make sure we protect our assets.
| > It does us little good to make lots of dollars in the market if those
| > dollars are worthless.
| >
| > I think this would be a good topic of discussion. It's probably of
| > most interest to U.S. traders, since it's our currency and our
| > economy that have been so mismanaged and are likely to fall. But
| > other countries are likely to suffer from the collapse as well, so
| > all of us may benefit from the ideas.
| >
| > So: how should a trader protect his assets and his financial future?
| >
| > I think we're fortunate in that we should be able to continue to earn
| > a living. No one is going to lay us off, and our employers will not
| > go bankrupt. (I hope, anyway, since our employers is us. :-) As
| > long as we can adjust our trading style to the new financial
| > conditions we *should* be able to continue to pay the bills. We
| > should probably be careful not to have too much money tied up at any
| > one brokerage, since I imagine some of them are going to crack up
| > when the fertilizer hits the fan.
| >
| > But what about our savings, our retirement plans, etc? Do we buy a
| > stash of Krugerrands and gold eagles and bury them in the garden? Do
| > we have to move our funds into SF-denominated Swiss accounts to
| > protect them from a dollar debacle? How do we protect their value?
| >
| > And what of non-traders? My parents are in their 70's and asked me
| > just this weekend how they should protect their modest retirement
| > funds. I wasn't quite sure what to tell them but said I would think
| > about it. Any suggestions?
| >
| > Thanks,
| > Gary
| >
|
|
| << Datei: ATT00004.html >> From ???@??? Wed Oct 06 06:26:08 1999
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Status:
Howard Hopkins wrote:
> RT's,
>
> I'm looking for the groups feeling on the intermediate (3month) direction on
> March Sugar. I went short today 6.73 on a stop.
>
> Thanks,
> Howard
What is your target for a down move and what is your exit if you are wrong?
Personally, I wouldn't trade Sugar unless I thought I could make at least 200
pts.
Currently, I think the odds are greater for Sugar to go up 200 pts than down 200
pts.
Barring a worldwide depression, I don't see Sugar going to 4 1/2 cents or less.
I think
it already made a good low near 4 cents earlier this year.
Cheers,
Norman
>
>
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