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Ahhh.... The wall of worry! We climb it while screaming armagedden over
and over and over and still, we do it. In fact, we *must* do it or bull
markets would fail. The mails to this list proclaiming bubbles, (aka bull
markets), are about to burst, only substantiate that the climb up the wall
is continuing. Should nearly everyone on this list begin to proclaim we
are past the problems, that the bubble was really a hot air balloon to
prosperity and that the indices have only begun to rise.... *get out*.
Oh, I too am not so sure we won't see an increase of 1/4 pt today with a
neutral bias. Almost as good as no increase since everyone will then be
convinced the series has ended. Without an increase, worrywarts will just
begin to worry about Nov. For me, I would like to see the final 1/4 point
taken back and a return to focusing on earnings.
Bob
At 05:20 PM 10/5/99 +0100, Gwenael Gautier wrote:
>Ouch that hurts... Well I hope this is not to happen. Problem with bubbles
is
>that they are recognized as obvious bubbles only after the fact. There are
many
>situations that are comparable to bubbles but which never burst so they
are not
>recognized as bubbles.It was said before 1987 we are in a bubble, and we
had a
>crash and the bull we had after just dwarfed the previous, so where is the
true
>bubble?
>
>still bubbling,
>
>Gwenn
>
>
>
>| -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
>| Von: Earl Adamy [SMTP:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
>| Gesendet am: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 1:32 PM
>| An: RealTraders Discussion Group
>| Betreff: Re: FOMC meeting?
>|
>| AG is responsible for guiding the monetary and interest rate policies of
the
>| US and this includes managing and preventing excessive speculation and
>| consumption whether it be in banking, real estate, credit, or stock
markets.
>| Allowing bubbles to build and then explode wrecks the economy for everyone,
>| not just the irresponsible speculators - clearly an area where government
>| has a responsibility to act. Early in his career, AG wrote some papers on
>| the crash of 29 which criticized the central bankers for allowing excessive
>| speculation and credit to grow unabated. Just a few years ago, AG had it
>| right when he spoke of "irrational exuberance", however he was unwilling to
>| pay the (probably very substantial) political price of raising interest and
>| margin rates to head off the bubble. Nor have our central bankers and
>| politicians been willing to bring an end to the import of endless cheap
>| goods which have held inflation in check and spurred consumption while
>| exporting a major portion of the US manufacturing base and building an
>| incredible trade deficit. Consequently, by most historical measures, US
>| equity and credit markets have bubbled to the point where a prick of the
>| bubble poses a serious threat to not only the US economy, but the world
>| economy as well.
>|
>| When the bubble does burst, as it inevitably will, the retirement savings
>| and pension plans of at least two generations will be placed in jeopardy.
>| Not only are these generations at risk of losing their financial
>| independence, but government tax coffers shorn of the stock market tax
>| bonanza will be incapable of providing a safety net. Further, US workers
>| will wake up to find that few are in a position to support the huge US
>| service economy and that there are few manufacturing jobs remaining. In
>| short, what happened in Japan in 1989 won't begin to compare to what will
>| happen in the US when the bubble bursts.
>|
>| Earl
>|
>| ----- Original Message -----
>| From: Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>| To: 'James Taylor' <jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; RealTraders Discussion Group
>| <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>| Sent: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 2:05 AM
>| Subject: AW: FOMC meeting?
>|
>|
>| > People make their own decisions and choices. Whether Mr G. was right or
>| wrong
>| > to make the decisions he made remains to be seen in hindsight, but it is
>| people
>| > who acted on their own buying these stocks, working for these companies
>| that
>| > lay off, did not start their own companies, did not buy the stocks,
>| speculated
>| > short term instead of holding long term, or bought houses and cars
instead
>| of
>| > stocks, or the reverse, borrowed instead of saved. How can you say G. is
>| > responsible for what people do. As you mentionned most are irrational,
and
>| do
>| > irrational things and then complain about unexpected results... Well, you
>| bet!
>| > That shouldn't be a surprise, but I don't see what G. is doing in there.
>| >
>| > Gwenn
>| >
>| >
>| >
>| > | -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
>| > | Von: James Taylor [SMTP:jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>| > | Gesendet am: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 4:06 AM
>| > | An: RAY RAFFURTY; fritz@xxxxxxxx; RealTraders Discussion Group
>| > | Betreff: Re: FOMC meeting?
>| > |
>| > | If the scum-sucker Greenspan has any spine at all, he will raise
>| tomorrow,
>| > | and catch the gambling public flat-footed. This 'man' (and I use the
>| term
>| > | loosely) will be hated by tens of millions of American's when this
ponzi
>| > | scheme finally ends. A heck of a lot of innocent, hard-working
citizens
>| > | will be hurt by his past bubble cultivation. When the blind-sided
>| public
>| > | end up unemployed, their families put on the street, and hungry, this
>| joker
>| > | will think long and hard about the choices he made. I wouldn't want to
>| be
>| > | him. Rednecks don't act rationally when they are hungry and cold.
>| > |
>| > | Signed,
>| > | an informed student of economics and government mismanagement and
>| deception
>| > |
>| > | -------------
>| > |
>| > | At 09:42 PM 10/4/99 -0400, RAY RAFFURTY wrote:
>| > | >Hi Gary,
>| > | >
>| > | >Actually, to get a jump on the Fed. meeting tune into CNBC at about
>| 8:00 AM
>| > | >EST for Mr. Greenspan's briefcase indicator. It has been correct
>| something
>| > | >like 18 out of the last 19 times. {;-)
>| > | >
>| > | > Good luck and good
trading,
>| > | >
>| > | > Ray Raffurty
>| > | >
>| > | >
>| > | >----- Original Message -----
>| > | >From: Gary Fritz <fritz@xxxxxxxx>
>| > | >To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>| > | >Sent: Monday, October 04, 1999 4:34 PM
>| > | >Subject: FOMC meeting?
>| > | >
>| > | >
>| > | >> I'm holding a long position into tomorrow and I figured I'd check...
>| > | >>
>| > | >> The FOMC meeting starts tommorrow morning at 0900 ET. But there is
>| > | >> usually not any impact from the *start* of the meeting, right? Any
>| > | >> fireworks, if any are to happen, shouldn't launch until they
announce
>| > | >> on Thursday at 1400 ET?
>| > | >>
>| > | >> The market doesn't seem to think Mr. G. will drop any bombs on
>| > | >> Thursday, given the run-up since Friday afternoon. Anybody want to
>| > | >> hazard any predictions?
>| > | >>
>| > | >> Thanks,
>| > | >> Gary
>| > | >>
>| > | >>
>| > | >>
>| > | >
>| > | >
>| > | >
>|
>
|