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At 6:24 AM -0600 9/30/99, Earl Adamy wrote:
>When I was doing a lot of system testing, one of my primary test cases was
>the bear market which began in '66. It was an agonizingly slow and choppy
>decline which slaughtered bulls, bears and almost any system thrown at it.
>Those who want an instant bear market to get on the bull market might want
>to dig out some history.
One way to simulate a bear market is to create an "artificial price".
For the S&P something like the following might work:
Price = 2500 - Close;
As you can see, in a bull market, the artificial price heads down,
simulating a bear market.
Of course, there is no assurance that the bar-to-bar patterns are
representation of a bear market...
You can also check your system to see if it is symmetrical for up and
down movements. Optimized systems usually are not and tend to favor
an uptrend, since that is what we have been having.
Bob Fulks
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