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<DIV><FONT size=2>On Aug 13 I posted a Gold analysis labeld
"Goldmanipulation", where I aired the opinion that MAYBE the drive
beneath strong supportlevels in the 265 area coul be the act of "the
Goldmanipulators", since the price "should" have stopped there if
"normal" (crowd) pricebehavour had been working (stopped at least for
a while - as oposed to what happened, a drive straight through the
level)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The most important level was 266.6 (78.6% retracement of the
1980 top) )which was broken with a low of 252.5.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>This friday, we had a weekly close of 269.8 and a high of
272,4 Friday! We are back above the 266.6 level.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>This calls for a breakdown failure of large proportions (long
term)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>See : break.gif</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Now, look at the weekly chart. ("wedge.gif) in the next
post</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>We broke down on the "Wrong" side of the falling
wedge, this is usually followed by a swift reaction in the direction of the
Break-Out.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Not so this time. On the contrary - we have had 3 tries to
come back inside the Wedge (on high volume), where the 3rd was
successful!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>WE HAD FAILURE OF, WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN, A DRAMATIC FALL -
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A DRAMATIC RISE THE OTHER WAY (UP)!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>(After a pullback to lower trendline? </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>WE HAVE NOW HAD TWO FAILURES. ONE ON A MONTHLY LEVEL AND ONE
ON A WEEKLY LEVEL.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The Low in Gold was on Aug 25. Some time after, I posted some
items on the Galactic Trader's list and below is part of that post:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> <BR>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>"In Ray Merriman's book "The Gold
Book" he says that" ..The Venus/Mars signautere [aspect], provide one
of the most easily defined correlation to gold price cycles."</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> (Venus Squared Mars on Aug
24)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The last bottom in gold occured on Aug
25.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>On Aug 24 Jupiter went retrograde and Merriman says:"In
most cases Jupiter retrograde concurred with the end of a cycle and was then
followed by a sharp direction in prices for at least a week and in some cases
lasting 3 weeks" (exactly what has happend. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>In other words the bottm was on time.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>In Supertraders Almanc you could read on p415 the 4 (!) days of this year
which Astrowise had the highest probabillity for trendchange (Astrodays). AUG 24
was one of them!</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>In the same book p362 (aniversery date index), where dates are listed for
the highest probabillity (historically) highs and lows of the year, you could
see that the weighted index for 1999 was Aug 28 - in other words it's no
surprise to Frank Taucher (the author) if the low (of the year in 1999) in Gold
came on Aug 24.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Larry Pesavento describes in his "Fibonacci Ratios with pattern
recogition" pattern #10: "Three Drives to a Bottom". (Linda B
Raschke calls the pattern "3 little Indians" in Street Smarts
According to LP).</DIV>
<DIV>The most important criteria in this pattern (which is most common on
intrady charts and rare on daily charts - weekly???) is symetry.</DIV>
<DIV>The weekly goldchart has a retracement in Time AND Price of 1.618 ).</DIV>
<DIV>This pattern indicates that we have seen a bottom in gold</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Delta followers find that we are at Long term delta point 1 and Medium term
point 3. these points have earlier been associated with important trendchages in
Gold.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>In Gilmore's "Geometry of Markets" he remarks that we often see
trendchanges in markets around. equinix. look at the "equinix.gif"
chart and look how equinoxes have affected goldmarkets. In a few cases there
have been acceleration of trend instead of trend changes. But the chart is
really remarkable in my opinion.</DIV>
<DIV>Now - after we have broken the 10-12 year long trend line and climbed back
inside, it could indicate that we are in for an accelaration phase.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>AdvGET Elliot wave count indicates that Aug 25 is end of wave 5</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Gold Mining Stocks and the XAU index did not confirm the last aug24 low in
gold and OBV for many of these stocks have now for a long time been positive
while price have been declining. </DIV>
<DIV>In other word a Positive divergence.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>At important junctures, gold/goldstocks move in the oposite drection of the
stockmarket and since we are entering the usual October scare and what looks
like a gigantic Head and Shoulder pattern in S&P, a breakdown of that
pattern could very well support the goldprice. A declining dollar would probably
do the same.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>In John Murphy's book" Intermarket TA", he claims that rising
gold price usually is the 1st sign of inflation and rising commodity prices. Up
to now we have actually seen commodity indexes leading goldprice. In other words
- gold has a lot of catching up to do (was it held down by manipulation....?).
And with oil's gap up out of a flagg formation (just as Goldman Sach's Comm
Index) the up pressure should be even more severe on Gold. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>At</DIV>
<DIV><U><FONT color=#800080></FONT></U><A
href="http://www.tocqueville.com/brainstorms/brainstorm0031.shtml";>http://www.tocqueville.com/brainstorms/brainstorm0031.shtml</A>
"The Golden Pyramid" <FONT size=2> you can read a VERY
interesting description of the fundamntal situation. It's a very scary scenario
(if you are short...), but what I find interesting is that John Hathaway comes
to the same conclusion as I (an explosive rise in gold price) but for
fundamental or perhaps we should call it Technical-Fundamental reasons.
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>What he describes is how more and more people - for a
long time - have been doing the same thing - betting money on a "sure"
thing. Just like the Yen carry trade some time ago which resulted in a steep
decline (melt DOWN) in the yen.</DIV>
<DIV>A similar "melt UP" in Gold could be caused by an initial
steep rise in Gold - exactly what the technical picture is suggesting.</DIV>
<DIV>Have a nice week</DIV>
<DIV>Stig</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> </FONT></DIV></FONT></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>
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