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Typically, as market tops approach, more and more stocks get hammered while
funds flow into the remaining high flyers. One by one, the remaining high
flyers are shot out of the sky. When the number of high flyers decreases to
some magic point, panic sets in and everything is sold. This is the process
which is measured by breadth: advances, declines, highs, lows. It does not
happen overnight but the process is inexorable and often repeated (not just
1929 and 1987), unless something happens which broadens the market. The odds
of the market broadening in the face of rising interest rates is not high.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: BobsKC <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, September 20, 1999 4:18 PM
Subject: Typical Portfolio
>
> I knew that my brother buys widely held stocks plus a few overlooked
growth
> stocks so I just asked him for his portfolio so I could see where his
> stocks stand in terms of their highs. Below is the list along with the
> highs, current price, correction, if any.
>
>
> C 51 3/4 44 1/16 -15%
> T 64 1/8 45 1/4 -30%
> SUPC 47 1/4 21 -54%
> LU 79 3/4 69 13/16 -13%
> CNCX 57 5/8 20 3/8 -62%
> BLS 51 3/8 43 7/8 -15%
> UMG 81 7/8 66 1/2 -20%
> SBC 60 49 13/16 -17%
> EMT 52 1/2 7 3/8 -80%
>
> Average correction/drop is 22% if you take out the highest and lowest,
> (EMT and LU). His portfolio is a bit overweighted in telecommunications
> but that's my fault. SUPC is growing at over 30% year but like most
> smaller caps is ignored and I too hold CNCX and have no idea why it
doesn't
> do better. It's had two strong recommendations in the past couple of
weeks
> with targets of $45... I still like it and hold it.
>
> I doubt anyone would believe that my brother bought these stocks anywhere
> near their high and he didn't of course .. He has very nice profits in
> several of them.
>
> In any case, like a 20+% correction? Pick your own portfolio .. Use NYC
> stocks or NASDQ or a combination of both. Just don't use internets as
they
> will distort the figures low and don't use in vogue cyclicals as they will
> weight it high. See what you get.. I've "thown darts" and come up with 25
> - 45%. Could it have already corrected while we were watching averages?
>
> Bob
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