|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<x-html><html>
About Crashes.<br>
<br>
Stock Market Crash is very interesting phenomenon and it would do no harm
to study it closely. One can start from putting all the crashes in
history on the chart and notice a frequency they are occurring. Then one
may study his (her) favorite indicators and their behavior prior, during
and after the crash.<br>
<br>
Market could do anything it wants any time any place. But even the market
has to prepare itself for the event. There are certain setups for the big
advance, for the big decline and for the crash. Making notices of those
setups would help during period when Sun go behind the Moon, Mr.
Greanspan yawns, chart overlay looks like 1929 etc.<br>
<br>
Just a humble thought.<br>
<br>
Yours,<br>
<br>
History Lover, Alex.<br>
<br>
At 10:31 PM 9/3/99 -0500, Jay Mackro wrote: <br>
<font size=2><blockquote type=cite cite><blockquote type=cite cite>Kohath
had written:</font><br>
<br>
<font face="arial" size=2>>Listen, folks, anyone who thinks we could
have another 1987 crash is a lunatic....</font><br>
<br>
<font size=2>Well, I must be a lunatic, because I think that we COULD
have a crash...</font><br>
However, I also believe that the world COULD come to an end, or that
the<br>
sun COULD fail to rise tomorrow. What are the odds of these
events? Well,<br>
pretty slim, but hey, they COULD occur.<br>
<br>
<font size=2>I agree with Kohath when he suggests that the old
"1987's chart looks like </font><br>
1999's, so a crash is imminent" reasoning is flawed. As he
points out, the <br>
charts are really not all that similar. But, more to the point,
even if they did <br>
match, so what? A lot of things have changed over the past 12 years
- to <br>
assume that this year will match a prior year, just because a chart of
prices <br>
looks the same - while ignoring all else that is different - is
naive. <br>
<br>
<font size=2>This is NOT to say that a crash can not occur (as Kohath
implies) - it is</font><br>
just to say that an assumed correlation between charts alone is not a
<br>
predictor of a crash.<br>
<br>
<font size=2>Jay Mackro</font><br>
</blockquote></blockquote><br>
</html>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Sep 05 14:28:13 1999
Return-Path: <owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Received: from ml.nw.verio.net (ml.nw.verio.net [204.202.220.47])
by purebytes.com (8.8.7/8.8.7) with ESMTP id KAA02427
for <neal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 5 Sep 1999 10:34:29 -0700
Received: (from majordom@xxxxxxxxx)
by ml.nw.verio.net (970819888) id JAA25312
for realtraders-sendemout; Sun, 5 Sep 1999 09:32:52 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from mail1.nwnet.net (mail1.nwnet.net [192.220.251.8])
by ml.nw.verio.net (970819888) with ESMTP id JAA25295
for <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 5 Sep 1999 09:32:45 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from mail.rdc2.occa.home.com (ha1.rdc2.occa.home.com [24.2.8.66])
by mail1.nwnet.net (970819888) with ESMTP id JAA05723
for <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 5 Sep 1999 09:32:44 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from CX38282-A ([24.8.185.147]) by mail.rdc2.occa.home.com
(InterMail v4.01.01.00 201-229-111) with SMTP
id <19990905163243.SQHB15959.mail.rdc2.occa.home.com@xxxxxxxxx>;
Sun, 5 Sep 1999 09:32:43 -0700
Message-Id: <4.1.19990905092417.00b57230@xxxx>
X-Sender: alevitin@xxxx
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1
Date: Sun, 05 Sep 1999 09:35:39 -0700
To: "Jay Mackro" <jmackro@xxxxxxxxxxxx>, "Kohath" <kohath@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
From: Alexander Levitin <alevitin@xxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Stock Market, Crashes, etc.
Cc: <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
In-Reply-To: <000301bef6fc$d10352c0$8bc0fc9e@xxxxx>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: multipart/alternative;
boundary="=====================_121094084==_.ALT"
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Precedence: bulk
Status: O
<x-html><html>
About Crashes.<br>
<br>
Stock Market Crash is very interesting phenomenon and it would do no harm
to study it closely. One can start from putting all the crashes in
history on the chart and notice a frequency they are occurring. Then one
may study his (her) favorite indicators and their behavior prior, during
and after the crash.<br>
<br>
Market could do anything it wants any time any place. But even the market
has to prepare itself for the event. There are certain setups for the big
advance, for the big decline and for the crash. Making notices of those
setups would help during period when Sun go behind the Moon, Mr.
Greanspan yawns, chart overlay looks like 1929 etc.<br>
<br>
Just a humble thought.<br>
<br>
Yours,<br>
<br>
History Lover, Alex.<br>
<br>
At 10:31 PM 9/3/99 -0500, Jay Mackro wrote: <br>
<font size=2><blockquote type=cite cite><blockquote type=cite cite>Kohath
had written:</font><br>
<br>
<font face="arial" size=2>>Listen, folks, anyone who thinks we could
have another 1987 crash is a lunatic....</font><br>
<br>
<font size=2>Well, I must be a lunatic, because I think that we COULD
have a crash...</font><br>
However, I also believe that the world COULD come to an end, or that
the<br>
sun COULD fail to rise tomorrow. What are the odds of these
events? Well,<br>
pretty slim, but hey, they COULD occur.<br>
<br>
<font size=2>I agree with Kohath when he suggests that the old
"1987's chart looks like </font><br>
1999's, so a crash is imminent" reasoning is flawed. As he
points out, the <br>
charts are really not all that similar. But, more to the point,
even if they did <br>
match, so what? A lot of things have changed over the past 12 years
- to <br>
assume that this year will match a prior year, just because a chart of
prices <br>
looks the same - while ignoring all else that is different - is
naive. <br>
<br>
<font size=2>This is NOT to say that a crash can not occur (as Kohath
implies) - it is</font><br>
just to say that an assumed correlation between charts alone is not a
<br>
predictor of a crash.<br>
<br>
<font size=2>Jay Mackro</font><br>
</blockquote></blockquote><br>
</html>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Sep 06 19:52:32 1999
Return-Path: <owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Received: from ml.nw.verio.net (ml.nw.verio.net [204.202.220.47])
by purebytes.com (8.8.7/8.8.7) with ESMTP id SAA20284
for <neal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Mon, 6 Sep 1999 18:09:48 -0700
Received: (from majordom@xxxxxxxxx)
by ml.nw.verio.net (970819888) id QAA17841
for realtraders-sendemout; Mon, 6 Sep 1999 16:45:35 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from mail1.nwnet.net (mail1.nwnet.net [192.220.251.8])
by ml.nw.verio.net (970819888) with ESMTP id QAA17826
for <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Mon, 6 Sep 1999 16:45:29 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from m5.boston.juno.com (m5.boston.juno.com [205.231.100.197])
by mail1.nwnet.net (970819888) with ESMTP id QAA00755
for <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>; Mon, 6 Sep 1999 16:45:27 -0700 (PDT)
Received: (from rmac@xxxxxxxx)
by m5.boston.juno.com (queuemail) id EKVCYB6D; Mon, 06 Sep 1999 19:43:04 EDT
To: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Mon, 6 Sep 1999 19:42:10 -0400
Subject: Gen:Cosmic Clock Update
Message-ID: <19990906.194212.-3876289.0.rmac@xxxxxxxx>
X-Mailer: Juno 3.0.13
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: multipart/mixed; boundary=--__JNP_000_58df.26e6.12cd
X-Juno-Line-Breaks: 0-6,10-11,12-32767
X-Juno-Att: 1
X-Juno-RefParts: 0
From: Ronald McEwan <rmac@xxxxxxxx>
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Precedence: bulk
Status:
I had some requests for an update on the "Cosmic Clock". I am preparing a
set of yearly charts for this going back to 1987 so you can see how it
would have performed in the past. There will also be a special millennium
edition (year 2000).
Ron McEwan
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Cosmic Clock.gif"
|