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The 60's didn't have our level of personal debt nor our level of national
indebtedness. I don't know about proportional debt in the 20's but I don't
think it would have been very large. It makes me laugh when I think about it
but there was no Income Tax in the 20's. When stocks traded at greater then
5 times earnings in the 60's that was trouble, now things trade at 10 times
that much and nobody is worried. It all makes comparisons very hard and we
have had these problems for years now. So what straw will break the camels
back? It's anybody's guess.
Brent
----- Original Message -----
From: Ira Tunik <ist@xxxxxx>
To: Linda Swope <linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: Real Traders <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, August 15, 1999 9:20 PM
Subject: Re: Dow drop / bonds?
> Like everything else there is two sides. If the conditions of the 60s is
> replayed then you should be short bonds because you will need higher
interest
> rates to stem inflation. If you have conditions that occurred in the 20s
then
> you buy bonds because no one will want to borrow money and interest rates
will
> fall. I can't see into the future and that is why I trade technically
rather
> then on fundamentals. Ira.
>
> Linda Swope wrote:
>
> > Should this scenario play itself out, what would be expected of the
various
> > categories of bonds?
> >
> > Linda
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Ira Tunik <ist@xxxxxx>
> >
> > > If you believe in DeNapoli, the Fib numbers, and Eliot then there is
> > > nothing to worry about. The dow can drop to about 4000 and you would
> > > still be in a bull market or a retracement from one of the really long
> > > waves. Once again the bull and the bear are defined by time frame.
> > > The trader will be short for most of a down side run. The long term
> > > investor would be out about 2/3 of his capital and the margin player
> > > would have had his last margin call months before this number is
> > > reached, if it ever is. Those who like to accumulate positions on the
> > > way down will find the folly in that theory after a very short period
of
> > > time. But like every market, if the down draft or prolonged bear
> > > occurs, there will be stocks and futures that will go up. That is the
> > > nature of markets. Someone always benefits, no matter what the
> > > condition.
> > >
> > > Just a thought to end the week end. Ira.
> > >
>
>
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