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Like everything else there is two sides. If the conditions of the 60s is
replayed then you should be short bonds because you will need higher interest
rates to stem inflation. If you have conditions that occurred in the 20s then
you buy bonds because no one will want to borrow money and interest rates will
fall. I can't see into the future and that is why I trade technically rather
then on fundamentals. Ira.
Linda Swope wrote:
> Should this scenario play itself out, what would be expected of the various
> categories of bonds?
>
> Linda
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Ira Tunik <ist@xxxxxx>
>
> > If you believe in DeNapoli, the Fib numbers, and Eliot then there is
> > nothing to worry about. The dow can drop to about 4000 and you would
> > still be in a bull market or a retracement from one of the really long
> > waves. Once again the bull and the bear are defined by time frame.
> > The trader will be short for most of a down side run. The long term
> > investor would be out about 2/3 of his capital and the margin player
> > would have had his last margin call months before this number is
> > reached, if it ever is. Those who like to accumulate positions on the
> > way down will find the folly in that theory after a very short period of
> > time. But like every market, if the down draft or prolonged bear
> > occurs, there will be stocks and futures that will go up. That is the
> > nature of markets. Someone always benefits, no matter what the
> > condition.
> >
> > Just a thought to end the week end. Ira.
> >
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