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The latest down movement was made with weakening momentum and created a
bullish divergence on the way down. The lowest close of 5.31 was around the
61.8% fib line and if it holds could indicate that the previous bottom of
4.56 is the end of the long term down trend. I look for confirmation of the
bullish divergence with a close above 5.88 which would be above the long
term ma on my charts. I will rethink this if sugar trades below 5.07.
Any thoughts?
Jack
----- Original Message -----
From: Ira <ist@xxxxxx>
To: Philip <pschmi02@xxxxxxxxxxx>; Real traders <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, July 16, 1999 12:49 AM
Subject: Re: FUT: October Sugar
> Why not go long now. It has a high probability of getting to 565 then
595.
> It can go to 7.25 and still be in a down trend. You should not have an
> opinion on what you are trading. Always look at both sides. You
currently
> have both an up trade and a down trade possible at this time. My system
says
> that the long trade has the highest probability of success at this time.
This
> is not a trade recommendation, as I, like all traders have been wrong.
That
> is the nature of the business. The reason for the post is to get you to
look
> at both possibilities with the same degree of conviction and let the
charts
> tell which is correct based upon the system you use. Good luck and have a
good
> week end. Ira.
>
> Philip wrote:
>
> > I was pondering sugar as a potential short, maybe not tomorrow but soon
> > (watch what happens now that I'm on the record!). But then I fired up
> > the old fib tool and well, have a look at the GIF. Looks like the 536+
> > level is a classic case of resistance turned into support. Back in May
> > 536 was a tough hurdle to take, while over the last 6-7 trading days
> > roughly the same level is where somebody's just as adamant about buying
> > it.
> >
> > Maybe a short at this point would have limited potential. Last weekend,
> > everybody did their homework and came to the conclusion "Yup, it's
> > turning down again." There must have been all sorts of sell orders
> > waiting on Monday morning to drive price down like that. But then
> > somebody stepped in and really bought in no uncertain terms (and at a
> > nice price too).
> >
> > Am I on the right track?
> >
>
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> > [Image]
>
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