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Thanks very much for your comments, Norman.
> I would much rather be on the long side here and take the risk that sugar will
> test its all time low at 2 1/2 cents. If it were to do that, I would just keep
> rolling it over an eventually I will be able to ride it for mucho dinero.
There is no way I could hang on to a losing trade in sugar if it were to test its
all time low at 2½ cents from the current level, certainly not financially, and
not psychologically either. If that is a strategy you could pursue, I
congratulate you.
> I don't understand why you would want to sell sugar now when you had a
> chance to sell it at least 100 pts higher just a few weeks ago?
Well, I'm just one of those people that repeatedly misses the opportunity to sell
the highs, you know? Too slow to realize that 5.52 (100 pts and three weeks ago)
was time to sell.
> I think it is more likely that sugar is now in or just was in an Elliott Wave
> II and when it turns higher, it will go to new highs. The last swing was 393
> (basis July) to 664 (basis Oct.) = a range of 271. .618 x 271 = 496. A few days
> ago, Oct. Sugar made a low at 505. Given that these numbers are not perfect due
> to a blending of different contract month highs and lows, it woujld seem that
> one
> should allow the possiblity that the 505 low was significant. If the 5 cent
> area holds, a new up wave could now be on the way. Using the measured move
> method, adding 271 points to 505 = 776. If the upmove were a wave III then
> various harmonics of the 271 measurement should be considered. 1.618 x 271 = 438
> added to 505 = 943.
Indeed. I actually had some fib calculations going through my mind as well.
> So, bottom line is that currently there is a lot more upside than downside
> potential to sugar.
Yep. That seems to be the consensus . . . now what was I reading about consensus
recently . . . ?
Longingly,
Philip
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