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<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Hi RTs,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Does anyone know where I might find realtime quotes for copper and zinc,
along with the major stock indexes and Peruvian ADR?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Dennis C.</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000><A
href="mailto:dlc@xxxxxxxxx";>dlc@xxxxxxxxx</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Jun 15 06:47:37 1999
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Date: Mon, 14 Jun 1999 21:45:03 -0700
From: "Norman E. Phair" <ericrogers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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To: JER3CUBE@xxxxxxx, realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: GEN: Paul Merriman/ 100% Cash
References: <a1ee6f4a.24941326@xxxxxxx> <37642A0B.A0AB84E8@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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I have computed his actual record from 4/30/97 to
6/11/99. If you took every one of his signals you
would be up 8.6%.
If you bought 100% on the same date at S&P cash of 801
you would be up 61%
It looks like he is as good contrary indicator. I rest
my case.
Since he is 100% cash, look for a place to buy.
Norman E.
"Norman E. Phair" wrote:
>
> Since you did not answer my question:
> > Have you computed his signals back to see how good he
> > is?
> I will start out by answering your statement. I would
> say 30 times going 100% cash for an advisor is not RARE.
>
> Lets take a cursory look at his recent record.
>
> When he was 100% cash#
>
> # 10/27/97 S & P 877
>
> 2/3/98 100% invested, Index 1006
> Interim 25-75% invested
> 7/9/98 100% invested Index 1158 (close to the top)
>
> # 8/10/98 Index 1083
>
> 10/21 100% invested. Index 1070
>
> 1/12 100% invested. Index 1240
> 4/26/99 100% invested. Index 1360 (missed the top
> by 6 points)
>
> Interim 25-75% invested
>
> # 6/11/99 Index 1294
>
> Would a buy and hold approach have produced better
> results? More later.
>
> Norman E.
>
> JER3CUBE@xxxxxxx wrote:
> >
> > In a message dated 6/12/99 3:19:11 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
> > ericrogers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
> >
> > <<
> > Have you computed his signals back to see how good he
> > is? I question if
> > I want to take the advise of someone who shows the last
> > signal in bonds on page one of his web page as 12/1/98
> > but the last signal in his complete signal history is
> > 12/31/98. He can not keep his web page straight,
> > >>
> > His historical signals are available at the site(www.fundadvisor.com)
> > It is RARE that any advisor would go to 100% cash.
> > YOU ARE ON NOTICE ,... if you remain long or enter a trade
> > long.....in the face of warning.
> > That doesn't mean you can't do it....of course you can.
> > Merriman's system is largely mechanical using moving averages
> > with differnet time frames. As a trend kicks in favorable and
> > and is confirmed daily, weekly, monthly, etc. a postion is increased
> > or decreased. A fourth system which he does not disclose is
> > not related to moving averages.
> >
> > If still wanted to trade, I would work the short side.
> > The stocks I screen are showing the following possible
> > canidates AA, SBC,IR, and possibly IBM
> > I ALWAYS use protective stops just above the recent high
> > up to two days prior.
> >
> > Hope this helps.
> > Tradesmart,
> > GerryB/jer33:3
> > eccl 1:9
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