|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I'm sure you know this, but I think there is common misuse of cause and
effect. A declining A/D is frequently cited as the reason why the market
must fall when in fact a declining A/D in a rising market is a
non-confirmation which makes the price movement suspect. The price movement
is confirmed (a kind of market is ok) when the A/D moves up to confirm
price. A/D confirmation frequently lags the market. The Dow Jones theory of
Transports confirming the Industrials is similarly misused - the failure of
the Transports to confirm price moves in the Industrials does not mean the
Industrials will decline, it means the move is suspect. The Transports
frequently confirm on a lagging basis.
As you say, the McOsc provides a good basis for understanding market moves,
however extreme levels may require smoothing to become useful.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: Ira <ist@xxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, May 09, 1999 12:43 PM
Subject: Re: MKT US Equities - Advance/Decline Line Insight
> You can't have it both ways. With the advance decline line continuing to
go
> lower, the guru's have been saying the market is going to fall apart. Now
that
> the advance/decline is bottoming???? you are saying a rally is in the
offing.
> What have we been doing? Why has the AD line been wrong all this time and
all of
> a sudden it is going to be right. Try the McClellan Oscillator, it will
give you
> a better idea of what the internals look like. It also is dependent upon
the
> advances and declines, but has a tradable range. Ira
>
> BOTTrader@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
> > I watch the advance/decline line over the shorter term, as one input to
my
> > overall timing, and intra-day as an input to SP trading..... There's a
> > website DEVOTED to advance/decline which really goes into great detail
on the
> > subject (more than I want to know)..... I find the guy's work very
> > interesting...... It's at www.ttheory.com, check it out..... By the way,
he
> > see's the same bottoming pattern in the Ad/Dec, and the likelihood that
it
> > will expand upward and take the market to significant new highs over the
next
> > few years, a position he's just recently taken.
>
|