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<P>Gitanshu Buch wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE><STYLE></STYLE>
<FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>Just
following through:</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>1. Entered
short 1887 5/4 night sessionCovered 1854 at the open 5/5</FONT></FONT>
<FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>2. Re-entered short 1868 on night session
low (retest)Stopped out at 1902 on 5/5 stop run</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>3a.
Re-entered short 1868 5/6 opening hour.3b. Bought 1850/1900 call spread
for 19 cents 5/6 mid-session.Covered short 1790 5/7Sold 1850/1900 call
spread for 13 cents 5/7</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>P&L:</FONT></FONT>
<FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>1. + 332. - 343a.+ 783b. -
6------------------------------------------------------------+71 cents,
$710 less commission per lot.------------------------------------------------------------</FONT></FONT>
<FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>Comments:</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>a.
Repeat signals/entries taken in the same direction as originally triggered
generally have a better payoff even though one may get stopped out due
to uncontrollable factors. Just because one gets stopped out does not mean
a high probability setup has failed.</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>Psychologically,
though, it is difficult to re-enter a broken trade.</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>b.
When the ducks quack, feed them. I like to take profits on range expansion
bars.</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>c. 19 cent cost of
call spread protection was worthwhile for insulating overnight gap risk.
In effect this got reduced to 6 cents. This spread is 13 bid 17 offered
right now, with Crude at 1790. I hit the bid since I want to go home flat
for the trade.</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>I have other
open positions in this market.</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>Regards</FONT></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>Gitanshu,</FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1> Why aren't
you still short Crude Oil? I don't see where anything has changed,
i.e. Neptune just</FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>went Retrograde, and an approx. $1
drop in Crude Oil is a substandard correction. Additionally,</FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>Oil had a rally of approx. $8. A Fibonacci
analysis of this range would imply that a minimum .382 retracement would
cause one to expect a $3.05 retracement from the $19.05 high to $16.00.
Taking</FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>too small of profits is the same as
losing money. You are not being properly compensated for the risk you are
taking. I look forward to your spirited reply.</FONT></FONT>
<P><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>Regards,</FONT></FONT>
<P><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>Norman</FONT></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Fri May 07 22:43:24 1999
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Date: Fri, 07 May 1999 22:36:01 -0700
Reply-To: ncabana@xxxxxxx
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From: "Norman M. Cabana" <ncabana@xxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [Fwd: Probabilities]
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Barnes and Noble has the book. ISBN is 0275941035 and the authors are Peter Asch and Richard E. Quandt. Price is $12.95. I just ordered one.
Thanks
Norm Cabana
THE DOCTOR wrote:
> I just checked with AMAZON and the book is out of print. If you can find one I would still go for it.
>
> THE DOCTOR wrote:
>
> > There was a book written some years back called "RACETRACK BETTING" the authors were Adams and Quant, both professors(at Princeton I believe). It was a discussion of paramutual betting and the concept of how to bet and conditional probability. It quickly became "required" reading for many of the best traders at CBOE. I would strongly encourage anyone really serious about trading to get a copy and really understand it(I haven't checked amazon.com to see if it still in print). This is a strong statement , but of the handful of people I know who trade for a living and claim to have understood it ......All have accumulated net worth's in a range that most people would envy.
> >
> > I would strongly encourage anyone really interested in understanding conditional probability and option trading to read it.
> >
> > Ira wrote:
> >
> > > I am on everyone's mailing list and I received an interesting solicitation for a gambling system. I love to read the promises. This one had something interesting in it that many of us have tried to express to the new traders. It struck me that this particular paragraph applied to trading as much as to horse racing and other bets of chance.
> > >
> > > "Each wagering game, including horse racing, has a set of probabilities which govern the possible outcome of any given series of results. Most believe those games with a "minus" probability ( a House edge against the player), cannot be beaten over an extended period of time because the percentages are against them. This is not always correct, because there are two sets of probabilities, one minus and one positive! Everyone else only uses the minus probabilities to prove their point about so called gambling games. When in fact, almost all Casino games and Horse racing, have a positive probability also. When this Positive Probability is greater than the minus probability in a particular game, the game can be beaten...in fact... the game must be beaten in the long run!!!! A game with a positive probability would be any wager game in which three factors must be present... The player is not required to play constantly, ( the house must always play)... the player can cha!
ng!
> e the
> > > amount of the wagers whenever they wish, ( the house must always bet what ever the player wagers).. The player can quit playing whenever they want ( the house must be ready to play whenever players want to)"
> > >
> > > For Casino substitute Exchange. For House Substitute Locals. For players substitute traders. Games of chance substitute futures, stock or options. Not a bad analogy.
> > >
> > > The claim is that after 12 years of study by a renowned Swiss scientist. ...... who has proven, without a doubt...there is no gambling... I only posted this for reference. I found it interesting. Ira.
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