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<DIV><FONT size=2>This is a forum for the exchange of ideas. You must formulate
your own ideas in order to be a successful trader. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It sounds to me like you should not be doing any trading until
you learn more about the markets.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Good Luck. You have a lot to learn.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Christine</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Edelina <<A
href="mailto:duis.abn@xxxxxxxxx";>duis.abn@xxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>RealTraders Discussion Group <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Wednesday, May 05, 1999 11:35 AM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: I refere to earl
adamy "june bonds " message<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Dear earl,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Because you have many good posts ,</DIV>
<DIV>I want to read them and to take consideration of them.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>but If I see 2 messages for the long term trend:contrarian drastically
</DIV>
<DIV>I might lost your best posting...</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>IT IS PITTY FOR ME>>>>so I want to prevent this and </DIV>
<DIV>warning
you..........................................!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>so did you get my idea ??? or not ?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I cannot understand with my knowledge how they could </DIV>
<DIV>be contrarian in only 7 days. and thanks god nothing </DIV>
<DIV>no bad events happened.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Thanks GOD</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx"; title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A>
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>RealTraders Discussion Group</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Mittwoch, 5. Mai 1999 16:00</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: I refere to earl adamy "june bonds "
message</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I think the word you wanted is "refer"
rather than "refere". This is the second time you have
composed such a message and used my name in the subject. This is not the
kind of message which contributes to a positive environment for the
exchange of ideas. I suggest that the next time you feel compelled to
compose such a message that you press the <Delete> button instead
of the <Send> button. </FONT></FONT><FONT size=2>Had you taken the
time to carefully read my most recent post instead of firing
up a message reply, you would have found there is no such
inconsistency. I expect the equity markets to go considerably higher in
spite of some technicals. </FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><EM>"<FONT size=2></EM><EM>Technical work still
points to 117-118 area into mid-May. While I have<BR>indications of a
top in equities, I don't think this market is going to just<BR>fade
away, I think it is going to go out in a spectacle of fireworks
which<BR>we have yet to see. And when the day does come, treasuries and
foreign<BR>currencies may offer some
opportunities."</EM></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I trade futures for a living and use mutual funds for
investment. I follow the markets where they lead - I never fight
the tape. However, I have no hesitation to stand aside when the markets
do not fit my trading or investment style. I have made no secret of the
fact that I consider the US equity markets vastly overvalued and
very dangerous. This does not mean they will not go higher - I
continue to expect that the S&P will come close to the 1600 area and
have said as much since the S&P was in the 1000 (many here will
remember my historical S&P channel chart dating from the 1920's). I
have made no secret of the fact that while I continue to trade the
S&P futures both long and short, my investment accounts have been
out of US equities. It was last fall when all the talking heads were
panning Asia that I first indicated I was making a major long term
commitments to Asia based mutual funds because I felt they offered
tremendous risk/reward opportunities (up over 50%). I subsequently
followed up with an analysis of the Nikkei and indicated that the Yen
should bear watching for signs of a decline against the dollar. Earlier
this year (when the talking heads said oil was going to $8 a barrel) I
suggested that energy funds appeared to offer significant
opportunities (up over 80%) and about six weeks ago I indicated that my
XAU system had issued a rare buy (up 27% in a month). About a month ago
I indicated that I thought bonds had bottomed and that I had made a
major commitment to long term bond positions, however I reversed course
quickly (0.4% loss) when the bond market failed to follow through, then
indicated bonds would likely break to 117-118 area well before the bond
market reversed a few days ago. Some months ago I posted several days
worth of futures trades, complete with detailed technical analysis, in
real-time which turned out a very nice profit on two out of three trades
in just a few days. In summary, I'm far from infallible, however I do
rather nicely without taking much risk and I support my own trades and
investments with my own analysis. I've had spells of S&P trading
where as many as 70% of my trades have been wrong but have made still
made money by controlling losses tightly and letting the winners
run. I always have a benchmark which indicates when my analysis is
wrong and don't hesitate to reverse course. Nor do I hesitate to
disagree with the conventional wisdom of the talking heads.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I contribute more than raw opinions here, I post
charts and analysis. I do so, not for compensation, but in the hope of
helping others in the same manner as others have helped me. I make no
claims to infallibility and those who read what I post should perform
their own analysis. What I don't post here are any "holy
grail" indicators or systems because there are none. The only group
(and it is a very large one) with which I take strong exception are
those who believe that they can be successful traders or investors
without understanding the markets. Those who believe that success
lies in some combination of hardware/software, some black box system,
some guru, or some chat room will ultimately have their collective
clocks cleaned!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:duis.abn@xxxxxxxxx";
title=duis.abn@xxxxxxxxx>Edelina</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>RealTraders Discussion Group</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, May 04, 1999
3:00 PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> I refere to earl adamy
"june bonds " message</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>dear earl adamy,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I respect your work. </DIV>
<DIV>but it is better you send few messages and specially those
which not contrary </DIV>
<DIV>one the other in a laps of 7 days.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>one week ago the sp500 was 1372 and you were prevising an
explosion to the 1400-1600</DIV>
<DIV>area..... now in your last message . you telling that you see a
top in equities.</DIV>
<DIV>and as a good politician you keep changing from equity to the
bond market.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>My GOD if only I have the courage to tell peoples my previsions
</DIV>
<DIV>all of them will become rich .</DIV>
<DIV>but I am still without courage.</DIV>
<DIV>and I am keeping to wonder peoples like you who have even the
courage to</DIV>
<DIV>write contrarian messages.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I understand that every one has and is free to express his
prevision on the market.</DIV>
<DIV>BUT he must take care of contrarian previsions very
often.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PLEASE refere to the message with title JUNE
BONDS.</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed May 05 10:22:00 1999
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Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 11:18:25 -0500
Reply-To: "charles meyer" <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
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From: "charles meyer" <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: fut:e-mini
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Earl:
Me too. I have always found whatever you say most helpful.
Regards,
Charles
-----Original Message-----
From: Don Roos <roos@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wednesday, May 05, 1999 10:53 AM
Subject: Re: fut:e-mini
>Earl:
>
>I always read your posts with great interest and find the information to
>be insightful and valuable. I'm sure almost all of us appreciate your
>contributions greatly. I hope you continue to find these contributions
>an important part of your trading. Thanks.
>
>Don
>
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