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<DIV><FONT size=2>Dear earl,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Because you have many good posts ,</DIV>
<DIV>I want to read them and to take consideration of them.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>but If I see 2 messages for the long term trend:contrarian drastically
</DIV>
<DIV>I might lost your best posting...</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>IT IS PITTY FOR ME>>>>so I want to prevent this and </DIV>
<DIV>warning you..........................................!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>so did you get my idea ??? or not ?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I cannot understand with my knowledge how they could </DIV>
<DIV>be contrarian in only 7 days. and thanks god nothing </DIV>
<DIV>no bad events happened.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Thanks GOD</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx"; title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>RealTraders Discussion Group</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Mittwoch, 5. Mai 1999 16:00</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: I refere to earl adamy "june bonds "
message</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I think the word you wanted is "refer" rather than
"refere". This is the second time you have composed such a message
and used my name in the subject. This is not the kind of message which
contributes to a positive environment for the exchange of ideas. I suggest
that the next time you feel compelled to compose such a message that you press
the <Delete> button instead of the <Send> button.
</FONT></FONT><FONT size=2>Had you taken the time to carefully read my
most recent post instead of firing up a message reply, you would have
found there is no such inconsistency. I expect the equity markets to go
considerably higher in spite of some technicals. </FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><EM>"<FONT size=2></EM><EM>Technical work still points
to 117-118 area into mid-May. While I have<BR>indications of a top in
equities, I don't think this market is going to just<BR>fade away, I think it
is going to go out in a spectacle of fireworks which<BR>we have yet to see.
And when the day does come, treasuries and foreign<BR>currencies may offer
some opportunities."</EM></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I trade futures for a living and use mutual funds for
investment. I follow the markets where they lead - I never fight the
tape. However, I have no hesitation to stand aside when the markets do not fit
my trading or investment style. I have made no secret of the fact that I
consider the US equity markets vastly overvalued and very dangerous. This
does not mean they will not go higher - I continue to expect that
the S&P will come close to the 1600 area and have said as much since the
S&P was in the 1000 (many here will remember my historical S&P channel
chart dating from the 1920's). I have made no secret of the fact
that while I continue to trade the S&P futures both long and short,
my investment accounts have been out of US equities. It was last fall when all
the talking heads were panning Asia that I first indicated I was making a
major long term commitments to Asia based mutual funds because I felt they
offered tremendous risk/reward opportunities (up over 50%). I subsequently
followed up with an analysis of the Nikkei and indicated that the Yen should
bear watching for signs of a decline against the dollar. Earlier this year
(when the talking heads said oil was going to $8 a barrel) I suggested that
energy funds appeared to offer significant opportunities (up over 80%)
and about six weeks ago I indicated that my XAU system had issued a rare buy
(up 27% in a month). About a month ago I indicated that I thought bonds had
bottomed and that I had made a major commitment to long term bond positions,
however I reversed course quickly (0.4% loss) when the bond market failed to
follow through, then indicated bonds would likely break to 117-118 area well
before the bond market reversed a few days ago. Some months ago I posted
several days worth of futures trades, complete with detailed technical
analysis, in real-time which turned out a very nice profit on two out of three
trades in just a few days. In summary, I'm far from infallible, however I do
rather nicely without taking much risk and I support my own trades and
investments with my own analysis. I've had spells of S&P trading where as
many as 70% of my trades have been wrong but have made still made money by
controlling losses tightly and letting the winners run. I always have a
benchmark which indicates when my analysis is wrong and don't hesitate to
reverse course. Nor do I hesitate to disagree with the conventional wisdom of
the talking heads.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I contribute more than raw opinions here, I post charts and
analysis. I do so, not for compensation, but in the hope of helping others in
the same manner as others have helped me. I make no claims to infallibility
and those who read what I post should perform their own analysis. What I don't
post here are any "holy grail" indicators or systems because there
are none. The only group (and it is a very large one) with which I take strong
exception are those who believe that they can be successful traders or
investors without understanding the markets. Those who believe that
success lies in some combination of hardware/software, some black box system,
some guru, or some chat room will ultimately have their collective clocks
cleaned!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Edelina
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>RealTraders Discussion Group</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, May 04, 1999 3:00
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> I refere to earl adamy
"june bonds " message</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>dear earl adamy,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I respect your work. </DIV>
<DIV>but it is better you send few messages and specially those which not
contrary </DIV>
<DIV>one the other in a laps of 7 days.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>one week ago the sp500 was 1372 and you were prevising an explosion to
the 1400-1600</DIV>
<DIV>area..... now in your last message . you telling that you see a top in
equities.</DIV>
<DIV>and as a good politician you keep changing from equity to the bond
market.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>My GOD if only I have the courage to tell peoples my previsions </DIV>
<DIV>all of them will become rich .</DIV>
<DIV>but I am still without courage.</DIV>
<DIV>and I am keeping to wonder peoples like you who have even the courage
to</DIV>
<DIV>write contrarian messages.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I understand that every one has and is free to express his prevision on
the market.</DIV>
<DIV>BUT he must take care of contrarian previsions very often.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PLEASE refere to the message with title JUNE
BONDS.</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue May 04 21:32:42 1999
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Date: Tue, 04 May 1999 21:30:14 PDT
Reply-To: rajatkbose@xxxxxxxxxxx
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: "Rajat K. Bose" <rajatkbose@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: ATR based stops
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BOTTrader:
Thanks a lot for your observation. I would test my stcoks with your
6x multiple.
Rajat
>From: BOTTrader@xxxxxxx
>To: rajatkbose@xxxxxxxxxxx, realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: Re: ATR based stops
>Date: Tue, 4 May 1999 11:47:38 EDT
>
>Rajat:
>I have incorporated ATR bands into my system for 2+ years now.... and they
>are quite useful.... For stocks I find that 6x ATR is a typical EXTREME
>area.... if your stocks run up or down to that band, you'll want to tighten
>your stops to lock profits. Occasionally, the stock will "ride the band"
>for
>some length of time, but just as often, they retrace from those extremes.
>
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