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I am not a cycle proponent. I used it as an example. I could give the same
example for moving averages, or most any other indicator that is currently used.
Many incorrectly. Stochastics and cycles were the easiest to use as an example. I
use cycles, I use momentum and other things that will give me the specific signals
that I, as a trader, require. Granted they may be different then what any one
else will use, but they work for me, because I designed them to fill my needs and
to work for me. My whole point was that people are risking money with little or no
idea of what they are seeing on the screen is telling them or what the indicator
or average etc. is supposed to relay. They are risking funds on what a black says
to do and willing to take huge draw downs on the belief that eventually the back
box will be right and save them. Ira.
MRLYNNG@xxxxxxx wrote:
> In a message dated 5/2/99 9:23:36 AM Pacific Daylight Time, ist@xxxxxx writes:
>
> << Hurst proved that the cycles vary and that there are cycles within cycles.
> >>
> Ira:
> I agree with your analysis but I don't arrive at the same conclusion (that a
> system must adapt to market conditions or else it will fail). I think one of
> the hardest things to do is to determine the cycles and phases within a
> market. I have seen countless traders focus on cycles and continue to lose
> in their trading. Also if we find something that works for us, we start to
> assume that it is THE way to do it but even then it will not be right for
> every one.
>
> Now for all of the cycle proponents, I agree that cycles can be useful. For
> me it is a time consuming process with variable results that still produce a
> number of losses IF the cycles alone are used. The best hope appears to be
> Bressert's new software that takes much of the drudgery out of the search for
> cycles and phases of cycles. It is being tested now and reports of it's
> features are very promising. I will have to wait until I see it in action.
>
> Ira, thanks for sharing your thoughts on cycles. It helps to understand a
> little better where you are coming from with the emphasis on cycles. In the
> past you would categorically dismiss some approaches and I could never
> understand why. I think you may have alot to share with the group but are
> afraid of revealing some secret that you feel is important. In most cases I
> have found that one person's secrets are rarely considered as a secret or
> important by others. As we all know, if a winning method of trading were
> given to 10 people, only zero or one would actually trade it the way it was
> given to them. Each would make changes to fit their way of doing things
> despite the fact that everything they used in the past was a loser. Old
> habits are tough, very tough to change.
> Lynn
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