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In a message dated 5/2/99 9:23:36 AM Pacific Daylight Time, ist@xxxxxx writes:
<< Hurst proved that the cycles vary and that there are cycles within cycles.
>>
Ira:
I agree with your analysis but I don't arrive at the same conclusion (that a
system must adapt to market conditions or else it will fail). I think one of
the hardest things to do is to determine the cycles and phases within a
market. I have seen countless traders focus on cycles and continue to lose
in their trading. Also if we find something that works for us, we start to
assume that it is THE way to do it but even then it will not be right for
every one.
Now for all of the cycle proponents, I agree that cycles can be useful. For
me it is a time consuming process with variable results that still produce a
number of losses IF the cycles alone are used. The best hope appears to be
Bressert's new software that takes much of the drudgery out of the search for
cycles and phases of cycles. It is being tested now and reports of it's
features are very promising. I will have to wait until I see it in action.
Ira, thanks for sharing your thoughts on cycles. It helps to understand a
little better where you are coming from with the emphasis on cycles. In the
past you would categorically dismiss some approaches and I could never
understand why. I think you may have alot to share with the group but are
afraid of revealing some secret that you feel is important. In most cases I
have found that one person's secrets are rarely considered as a secret or
important by others. As we all know, if a winning method of trading were
given to 10 people, only zero or one would actually trade it the way it was
given to them. Each would make changes to fit their way of doing things
despite the fact that everything they used in the past was a loser. Old
habits are tough, very tough to change.
Lynn
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