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LOWRISK.COM
INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY
4 / 20 / 99
brought to you by Investormap.com
the biggest directory of investing sites on the net.
http://www.investormap.com
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Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow" sentiment
survey. The survey was taken from 4/12 through 4/18 on the
Lowrisk.com web site.
Number of participants: 325
30 day outlook:
12% bullish, 36% last week
56% bearish, 51% last week
32% neutral, 13% last week
(percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding)
Median Guess For The Djia Closing Value On Friday, 4/23: 10,242 (It
Was 9996 Last Week). More Complete Sentiment Data Is Available At
<Http://Www.Lowrisk.Com/Sentiment.Htm> .
Investor sentiment was stunningly bearish last week. The bears
picked up 5% to 56%. The bulls all but disappeared, dropping 24% to
12%. In fact, the bullish reading of 12% was the lowest we have
recorded since we started our sentiment survey in May, 1997. The
neutral camp picked up quite a bit of ground, gaining 19% to end at
32%.
It is difficult to view this data as anything but bullish. After
all, the DJIA gained 320 points last week while setting a new all
time every single day. A a record low sentiment reading in the face
of that type of performance would seem like the perfect contrary
signal. However, there were a few things that could mitigate this
view. While the DJIA was strong last week, the SP500 and NASDAQ were
not - both of these indexes gave up quite a bit of our ground in the
last four days of the week. So these sentiment numbers don't quite
give an unequivocal "all clear" for the bulls.
Finally, we have noticed some correlation between very high neutral
readings (which we consider greater than 30%) and impending high
volatility. Monday's action in the market certainly seemed to bear
this out.
Please stop by to take part in this weeks survey at:
http://www.lowrisk.com/guess.htm
best regards,
Jeff Walker
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mailto:gtd-request@xxxxxxxxxxxx with the word "subscribe" in the body of
the message. Or stop by http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment-sub.htm
jwalker@xxxxxxxxxxx
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