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Had to split this.
-----Original Message-----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, April 15, 1999 3:48 PM
Subject: Re: ??? What does it mean??
Attached is a weekly QChart of "CYX.X /SPX.X" under SPX.X. Unfortunately the
data does not go back far enough to examine a full 4-5 year cycle. If
someone here can plot a longer weekly chart let's see it! I thought I
remembered a similar pattern just before several prior corrections but there
has been nothing like the recent jump. My gut tells me that the cyclicals
are not sexy enough to contain the hot money.
I've also been keeping an eye on the VIX (attached) which has jumped a bit
but has not begun a move to fear levels. My gut tells me that only fear
would send hot money from the nifty stocks to cyclicals so the pieces of the
puzzle appear not to fit. Looking at a 45 minute chart of the June s&p
(attached), the 3rd wave (second thrust) down nailed the maximum possible
Fibonacci price objective and the recovery into the close only managed to
retrace a tad over .382 before turning down again. This appears to be a
significant sell-off and I don't believe it is over. I will be very
surprised if treasury rates do not start declining very soon, possibly
tomorrow.
Earl
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Anthony G Purkis <ursa618@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Thursday, April 15, 1999 12:50 PM
>Subject: Re: ??? What does it mean??
>
>
>>
>>
>>Dick Webb wrote:
>>
>>> The morgan stanley cyclical index has just taken off
>>> to the upside. The Paper companies and gold stocks are
>>> going up. There is a theory that the far east is
>>> starting to recover and they are now no longer dumping
>>> commodities on the market. If this is the case and
>>> there is a shift in progress ...what typically occurs
>>> in one ...three and five years ??
>>>
>>>
>>Hello from Hong Kong. You mean reflation in Asia - IMHO this could be
>>wrong i.e. too early. It is one of the symptoms of the top of a primary
>>B wave, in Elliott terms. Also, the shift of funds out of growth/techs
>>and into cyclicals and value stocks IMHO again could be temporary.
>>Yields are too poor. My guess would be money market funds and bonds will
>>be the next destination for capital flows. The US economy will continue
>>to import deflation for this year - and that will also impact on
>>earnings. Regards.
>
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\CYCVSSPX.gif"
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\VIX2.gif"
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