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I gather those are Bob Miner's version of wave counts, because they are
not Elliott Waves! I do agree with the bearish conclusion though,
especially the seasonal story. Could bounce this morning though...
Steve Poser
--
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
http://www.poserglobal.com
Stig Olausson wrote:
>
> Last time I commented on T-Bonds, I said it would go up or down. And I was
> right again - It went up!!
>
> I will try to be more selective this time. I think they are going down!
>
> Looking at the chart you can see how the last upmove could be labeld a
> correction (W4?) and a test of the break out from the falling wedge. On
> march 17 we hit the roof : acorrection of 23,6% from the 10/5 top, 38,2%
> retracement from wave 2 and 61.8% retr. from the small 2/10 top.Furtehmore,
> wave 2=wave4. This coincided with the dynamic timeperiod around March 17
> plus all the important Astronomical aspects at that time. We also had the
> highest "Aniversary Index of the year at that date (3/18).
> + Spring Equinox.
>
> Although we have heavy resistance at the bottom of W3, we there traded
> below the 78,6% level of the advance from A to top10/5, which should be the
> last support if prices should turn up, indicating the the bottom will not
> hold and that we have further down to go.
>
> 5year seasonally we should be expecting a down move, se gif season, in next
> post.
>
> Supertraders Almanac (SA)have a seasonal index: Down 3/15/-4/15. Robert
> Miner suggest falling prices until ideally April 4.
> In SA you can also read that shorting T-bonds 5 days before April 1st and
> holding it til 7 days after would generate an avarage profit of $1594 over
> the last 5 years. And all 5 years were winners.
> Shorting the Easter holiday 6 days before Easter and getting out 1 day
> after would generate $1938. This was also a winner all 5 last years.
>
> A chart of the utility index shows a perfect small rising wedge from beg
> Feb.a break below 300 confirms the bearishness of that wedge.
> Please, also note the "hidden divergence" in the STORSI indicator,
> suggesting a fall.
>
> So if we should break inside the falling T-Bond wedge again, it would be a
> surprise - at least to me.
>
> Any DGL comments?
>
> regards
> Stig
>
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--
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
http://www.poserglobal.com
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