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Last time I commented on T-Bonds, I said it would go up or down. And I was
right again - It went up!!
I will try to be more selective this time. I think they are going down!
Looking at the chart you can see how the last upmove could be labeld a
correction (W4?) and a test of the break out from the falling wedge. On
march 17 we hit the roof : acorrection of 23,6% from the 10/5 top, 38,2%
retracement from wave 2 and 61.8% retr. from the small 2/10 top.Furtehmore,
wave 2=wave4. This coincided with the dynamic timeperiod around March 17
plus all the important Astronomical aspects at that time. We also had the
highest "Aniversary Index of the year at that date (3/18).
+ Spring Equinox.
Although we have heavy resistance at the bottom of W3, we there traded
below the 78,6% level of the advance from A to top10/5, which should be the
last support if prices should turn up, indicating the the bottom will not
hold and that we have further down to go.
5year seasonally we should be expecting a down move, se gif season, in next
post.
Supertraders Almanac (SA)have a seasonal index: Down 3/15/-4/15. Robert
Miner suggest falling prices until ideally April 4.
In SA you can also read that shorting T-bonds 5 days before April 1st and
holding it til 7 days after would generate an avarage profit of $1594 over
the last 5 years. And all 5 years were winners.
Shorting the Easter holiday 6 days before Easter and getting out 1 day
after would generate $1938. This was also a winner all 5 last years.
A chart of the utility index shows a perfect small rising wedge from beg
Feb.a break below 300 confirms the bearishness of that wedge.
Please, also note the "hidden divergence" in the STORSI indicator,
suggesting a fall.
So if we should break inside the falling T-Bond wedge again, it would be a
surprise - at least to me.
Any DGL comments?
regards
Stig
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