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Thought I'd weigh in on the subject here...
As most of you know I am more an analyst than a trader, though I do
trade bonds and other contracts, mostly intraday. I am not a great
trader, but i do make a little money at it.
I have to say that almost everybody I know that day trades mostly look
at price patterns, support and resistance and retracements. I am an
Elliott Wave kinda guy, and I use that even on an intraday basis. My
experience has been that price patterns work much better than indicators
do for day trading.
Alex Saitta, the technician who follows bonds at Soloman Bros. once did
a study on trendiness. He found almost none at the intraday level and
almost always out at the weekly and monthly level. Intraday was heavily
noise.
As most of you know, I have my own service (sold exclusively to
institutions and priced as such), but though I trade fairly successfully
on a day trading basis, I do not consider my commentary useful for day
trading. I do not think a daily comment can possibly do justice to day
trading. All it can do is give a good analysis of the likely direction
based on the previous day's patterns. I give support and resistance
levels in my pieces too, but the idea of giving five or six in a point
or two range, especially when they are COMPUTED levels rather than real
levels, such as fib retraces, trend lines, swing highs or lows, means
that you will always be able to say: "S2 held within three basis points,
so of course we went long." WHERE WOULD THE STOP HAVE BEEN. WOULDN'T YOU
HAVE BEEN LONG AND THEN STOPPED AND THEN WENT LONG AGAIN?
The point I am trying to make is that the markets are too fluid for a
single morning comment to be worthwhile. Bob's piece is well written. It
is also often wrong (as Bill quoted me). If he is actually trading as he
writes his piece, then he is making money anyway, but nobody buying the
commentary could possibly get that impression from the comments. They'd
have to have a full script ahead of time (impossible) or be sitting
inside Bob's head.
Steve Poser
--
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
http://www.poserglobal.com
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