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The futures came within .50 of the H&S Bottom projection to 1285 on the 45
minute chart. Having come within 6 points of the upper end of the 8 week
trading range.it remains to be seen if enough thrust remains to break out of
the range. Given the very poor intraday breadth this morning it looks
doubtful that we can do so without some more base building. The probability
of an upside breakout will improve if that basing takes place without
severely penetrating the 1261-1263 area.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sunday, February 21, 1999 4:25 PM
Subject: Re: MKT S&P Breakout/Breakdown
>Upon examining my 45 minute chart of the March S&P, after Friday's late
>sharp reversal and close, I noted the symmetry of the sharp upside
reversals
>of the opening bar on the 17th and closing bar on the 19th (begin/end of
>horizontal blue line). Also the development of a possible head and
shoulders
>bottom; which if completed, would project back to the contract highs at the
>top of the 8 week trading range. An examination of another series of
>intraday charts which nets upticks/dnticks on futures suggests that the
>persistent distribution of the week may have reversed Friday afternoon.
Next
>week's action will tell us more, but unless AG's testimony gores the bull,
I
>would not discount the possibility of a rapid move back to the top of the
>trading range. Meanwhile, the March Ru2000 has been building a most
>interesting formation which could resolve as a H&S top or as a base for a
>strong leg up. Oh yes, and the daily McClellan Oscillator appears to have
>completed a rising triple bottom under -100 (2/10, 2/12, 2/17) and broken
>above the 2/11 pivot high - suggests this consolidation may be coming to an
>end with a strong move to upside.
>
>It's not that I'm a raging bull, I just trade this range up and down, and
>will trade the eventual move whichever way it resolves. However I think
it's
>interesting to examine the opposite of the popular talking head wisdom that
>we are due for a nasty correction.
>
>Earl
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Friday, February 19, 1999 7:26 AM
>Subject: MKT S&P Breakout/Breakdown
>
>
>>Those looking for a big breakdown in the S&P might want to take a good
look
>>at attached weekly chart of futures. We've been in an 80+- point
>>consolidation range for about two months now and the market has held the
>>range in spite of some bad news including a big spike in rates. We have
yet
>>to take out the 1210 low w/e Jan 15 much less the 1147 low w/e Dec 18.
Note
>>also some of the similarities to 1996.
>>
>>While one should not dismiss the possibility of a breakdown, one should
>also
>>keep in mind that time in consolidation is a substitute for depth of
>>correction. There is a very real possibility of an explosive breakout
>>running several hundred S&P points before any truly deep correction
occurs.
>>The market will tell us which direction it prefers when it is ready.
>>
>>Earl
>>
>
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