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The 10 day moving average of the CBOE put/call ratio has set a 3 year highs
in the last few weeks. This is in the context of the A/D line approaching
18 month new lows.
<BR>The divergence between the DOW and the A/D line suggests that the present
rally is very narow. Support is added by the behavior of the Value
line Geometric which has made only a two-thirds retracement of the April
highs.
<P><U>I have the sense that once the speculative euphoria starts
to diminish there will be little to hold stocks up.</U>
<P>If we do go into a major decline here, it will, however, be unusual.
We are lacking signs that typically occur at a cyclical top:
<BR>rising interest rates,
<BR>escalating inflation,
<BR>and conventional FED restrictiveness on money.
<P>I suspect that the money figures are now misleading, since the dollar
has become an international currency. The currency figures included
in money supply are now 50% in circulation out of the country according
to estimates I've read. Lawrence Kudlow suggests that the real measure
of monetary tightness should be guaged by the trend of gold and commodity
prices. If that is reasonable analysis, then money is actually tight.
One measure of money is adjusted reserves of domestic banks. That
figure has been relatively static for the last 3 years.</HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Feb 02 22:42:33 1999
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Date: Tue, 02 Feb 1999 22:13:46 -0800
Reply-To: ist@xxxxxx
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From: Ira <ist@xxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Market Trend, continuation of bear begun in April 98
References: <36B7E417.DF8B0304@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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This is all very good and something to keep in the back of your mind, but
at this point there doesn't appear to be anything that is standing in the
way of this rise. The speculative euphoria is beyond my comprehension.
The volatility and a pricing of the internet stocks will subside some time,
but it doesn't seem to be here now. To add to the fire there seems to be
a new internet fund advertising every day. All the warning signs
are there, but until one's system says sell them, one should continue
to trade the swings and watch for the resolution. Why stand in the
way of a movin' train? Good trading, Ira
<p>"U.Stuart Auslander, NYC" wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE>The 10 day moving average of the CBOE put/call ratio
has set a 3 year highs in the last few weeks. This is in the context
of the A/D line approaching 18 month new lows.
<br>The divergence between the DOW and the A/D line suggests that the present
rally is very narow. Support is added by the behavior of the Value
line Geometric which has made only a two-thirds retracement of the April
highs.
<p><u>I have the sense that once the speculative euphoria starts
to diminish there will be little to hold stocks up.</u>
<p>If we do go into a major decline here, it will, however, be unusual.
We are lacking signs that typically occur at a cyclical top:
<br>rising interest rates,
<br>escalating inflation,
<br>and conventional FED restrictiveness on money.
<p>I suspect that the money figures are now misleading, since the dollar
has become an international currency. The currency figures included
in money supply are now 50% in circulation out of the country according
to estimates I've read. Lawrence Kudlow suggests that the real measure
of monetary tightness should be guaged by the trend of gold and commodity
prices. If that is reasonable analysis, then money is actually tight.
One measure of money is adjusted reserves of domestic banks. That
figure has been relatively static for the last 3 years.</blockquote>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Feb 03 07:01:06 1999
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From: Proffittak@xxxxxxx
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Market Trend, continuation of bear /decrease liqidity
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In a message dated 2/3/99 12:55:09 AM Eastern Standard Time, u.stuart-
auslander@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
<< I suspect that the money figures are now misleading, since the dollar
has become an international currency. The currency figures included in
money supply are now 50% in circulation out of the country according to
estimates I've read. Lawrence Kudlow suggests that the real measure of
monetary tightness should be guaged by the trend of gold and commodity
prices. If that is reasonable analysis, then money is actually tight.
One measure of money is adjusted reserves of domestic banks. That
figure has been relatively static for the last 3 years.
>>
good morning all
the fed is no longer supplying liqidity
in barons this weekend shows free reseerve DECREASED dramatically
compare to previous week
in addition the number from last week was REVISED downwards
technically market is in poor shape
ad line is too early in showing tops . but vol and new hi new low is 100%
reliable and showing down
this is not a trading recomendation
just my view
Ben
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