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Stig & Rter,
If you look at page 93 of How to Make Profits in Commodities on the
topic of seasonal tendencies on Wheat. January and February have
2 and 7 bottoms out of 101 whereas March and April have 12 and 14
respectively. The tops in March has only 1 and April and May is 11 and
19. The weekly chart indicates that a major top is made in April/May
last year indicating that wheat is following it's normal seasonal
tendencies.
The bottom of January is unlikely to hold according to seasonality.
Hence the lows on March would be violated subsequently. For
those who understands this, a double bottom against the bottom on
January is very weak for a low risk trade because January is not
a month for strong bottoms, only 2 out 101.
Clement
Stig Olausson wrote:
>
> TR's
>
> Take a look at this gigantic falling wedge in March Wheat and the
> divergence in Stoch and StochRSI.
> Perhaps it's time to take a closer look at what is happening in MAY
> wheat...
> As most of you probably know, a falling wedge is bullish and the divergence
> we see in the oscillators, are also bullish. But we are still waiting for a
> break out..
> But if we look closer, we find that we yesterday broke out of a small 4 day
> long BULLflag, with declining volume as confirmation. this bull flag has a
> potential objective which is above the higher trendline in the falling
> wedge.
>
> We can also distinguish a larger rising BEARflagg. If we place a stop and
> reverse just below the lower trendline we have a rather low risk high win
> potential.
>
> I think I will do that today!
>
> Regards
>
> Stig
>
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