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Dennis Peterson wrote:
> Tim,
>
> I am very bearish Corn, and Soybean, bearish Wheat, and neutral Oat.
>
> I think that the Long Term Trend in Soybeans is still down. Please see
> attached monthly chart.
>
> Soybean is the leader in the grain pits, and most traders are bullish on the
> beans. The more bullish the majority gets the more bearish I get.
>
> Dennis,
Your attached chart does not support your arguement very well if you ask
a better question which is representative of the current market. The question
should be, assuming you think the post harvest pattern is valid, is "what has
the market done in years where the price of the lead contract in Soybeans was
trading under under $5.50 on September 1?". This represents one condition or
definition of a Soybean market whose price is very depressed. Please notice
that on your chart, there is only one other comparable period, the Fall of 1994,
when Soybeans prices gradually but steadily continued higher into the Spring of
1995. I don''t see a good shorting opportunity during that 1994-95 harvest
period and I don't yet see one now. I think you are guilty of trying to squeeze
the last drop of blood out of Soybeans last bear market by still waging the last
war. Let's play "What If". What if you are wrong and Beans have already
made their low for the next several years? If you are lucky, they may pull back
30 cents and then run another $1, $2, higher? Now what if the Bulls are
wrong? Chances are they may be wrong on a pullback to test the lows, i.e. about
50 or 60 cents and then "Bam! Zoom! to the Moon, Alice". The point is that
even if your Elliott wave analysis is absolutely right here, the risk reward
still favors the Bulls.
Curiously, I don't strongly favor either arguement. I am a very short term
Bull in Beans. I went long
about one month ago and have been making some nice $$$. Now I am preparing to
exit my longs and look for another "flower" from which to get some nectar. Yes,
latter this week or next week, I expect a down ward correction in Soybeans.
However, long term, I think it is likely that Soybeans may have seen their lows
for this cycle, but I don't see them exploding to the upside in the next year
either. I think it is likely that Soybeans will trade in a slighly upward
trading range for the next several years. Probable range for the next several
years is about $8.25 on the top and about $5.25 on the bottom. There wll be some
nice money to be made in this market for those not too opinionated and who are
only in the market for a couple of weeks (ala the Lunar Cycle etc.) at a time.
All others will probaly get chopped up and start waxing reminisciently about
trading S&Ps. Oy Vey! <G>
Cheers,
Norman
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: <CONTrader@xxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Sunday, November 15, 1998 5:29 PM
> Subject: Re: FUTR: Mooning Over Dec Wheat
>
> >I sure hope your talking about shorting the grains on a short term intraday
> >basis, otherwise if your talking positioning a short trade in the grains
> long
> >term your in trouble, (in my opinion of course)
> >
> >
> >
> >Tim
> >
>
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