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Norman & Tim,
I do not disagree with anything that either of you have said. I was only
trying to point out that if this years post harvest season is like last
years (soybean) then the Bear still lives and we are likely to test the lows
or the Wave-3 bottom. My time horizon for trades is only one to about six
days so if we are sideways to lower this week I will be out of the market by
Friday. This has been a good exchange of ideas; I appreciate you guys
input.
Dennis
-----Original Message-----
From: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, November 16, 1998 12:29 PM
Subject: Re: FUTR: Mooning Over Dec Wheat
>
>
>Dennis Peterson wrote:
>
>> Tim,
>>
>> I am very bearish Corn, and Soybean, bearish Wheat, and neutral Oat.
>>
>> I think that the Long Term Trend in Soybeans is still down. Please see
>> attached monthly chart.
>>
>> Soybean is the leader in the grain pits, and most traders are bullish on
the
>> beans. The more bullish the majority gets the more bearish I get.
>>
>> Dennis,
>
> Your attached chart does not support your arguement very well if
you ask
>a better question which is representative of the current market. The
question
>should be, assuming you think the post harvest pattern is valid, is "what
has
>the market done in years where the price of the lead contract in Soybeans
was
>trading under under $5.50 on September 1?". This represents one condition
or
>definition of a Soybean market whose price is very depressed. Please
notice
>that on your chart, there is only one other comparable period, the Fall of
1994,
>when Soybeans prices gradually but steadily continued higher into the
Spring of
>1995. I don''t see a good shorting opportunity during that 1994-95 harvest
>period and I don't yet see one now. I think you are guilty of trying to
squeeze
>the last drop of blood out of Soybeans last bear market by still waging the
last
>war. Let's play "What If". What if you are wrong and Beans have
already
>made their low for the next several years? If you are lucky, they may pull
back
>30 cents and then run another $1, $2, higher? Now what if the Bulls are
>wrong? Chances are they may be wrong on a pullback to test the lows, i.e.
about
>50 or 60 cents and then "Bam! Zoom! to the Moon, Alice". The point is that
>even if your Elliott wave analysis is absolutely right here, the risk
reward
>still favors the Bulls.
> Curiously, I don't strongly favor either arguement. I am a very short
term
>Bull in Beans. I went long
>about one month ago and have been making some nice $$$. Now I am preparing
to
>exit my longs and look for another "flower" from which to get some nectar.
Yes,
>latter this week or next week, I expect a down ward correction in Soybeans.
>However, long term, I think it is likely that Soybeans may have seen their
lows
>for this cycle, but I don't see them exploding to the upside in the next
year
>either. I think it is likely that Soybeans will trade in a slighly upward
>trading range for the next several years. Probable range for the next
several
>years is about $8.25 on the top and about $5.25 on the bottom. There wll be
some
>nice money to be made in this market for those not too opinionated and who
are
>only in the market for a couple of weeks (ala the Lunar Cycle etc.) at a
time.
>All others will probaly get chopped up and start waxing reminisciently
about
>trading S&Ps. Oy Vey! <G>
>
>Cheers,
>
>Norman
>
>>
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: <CONTrader@xxxxxxx>
>> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Sunday, November 15, 1998 5:29 PM
>> Subject: Re: FUTR: Mooning Over Dec Wheat
>>
>> >I sure hope your talking about shorting the grains on a short term
intraday
>> >basis, otherwise if your talking positioning a short trade in the grains
>> long
>> >term your in trouble, (in my opinion of course)
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >Tim
>> >
>>
>> -----------------------------------------------------------------------
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>>
>> Name: s-mly.gif
>> s-mly.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
>> Encoding: base64
>
>
>
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