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The convergence of technicals, fundamentals, seasonality cycles supports the
notion that a turning point is at hand.
1. Clyde Lee's Swing length is mature both in terms of number of days and in
terms of number of points gained per swing length.
2. Valuation model has moved into CRASH levels per the Barnes Risk model.
This level is comparable to what it was last summer. Currently the S&P500 is
26% overvalued See http://www.together.net/~wbarnes/stockmarket.htm.
3. Monthly seasonality is real and Friday was the official end, except for the
fact that hollidays and (election) days extend the seasonality so Monday may
be it.
4. Long term interest rates are backing up.
5. Nature's pulse has a convergence of dynamic time cycles on 11/16. Followed
by 11/24 - 11/27. It has been deadly accurate.
6. Pre-expiration weeks tend to have a downward bias into Friday at which time
they turn up.
7. CBOE P/C ratios are at reversal levels.
8. Wall Street Week Elves are bullish 5 to 1 bearish(contrary indicator).
9. Feel good Ballot Box indicator has passed.
10.Technical oscillators of all kinds are running in max overbought as you
would expect in a mature trend.
11. Numerous downgrades of stocks by brokerage firms are being made on price
performance alone. The stocks rise has outpaced earnings and dividends growth
for the next year.
12. Mark Cook's cumulative tick:
"My sentiment indicators are almost on a sell signal which I have been
waiting to confirm the +250,000 CCT reading. These two could tie together as
early as Monday and then all we need would be a lower high. If these tie
together, it will not just be a short term signal but it has the potential to
be a
50 - 100 point S & P decline over a matter of weeks."
13. Emphasis in the media is being placed on secondary and more speculative
stocks as having a valuation advantage. A runup in NASDAQ stocks is the
bellringer, much like copper and lumber are for the building industry.
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