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-----Original Message-----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Friday, October 30, 1998 9:08 AM
Subject: Re: sp500 update
>Hard to believe it's been 10 days since Greenspan day, but it has and it's
>been a very tough 10 days to trade. This time I do concur with the bearish
>divergence on the McOsc which is very pronounced on the NYSE but rather
>nominal on NASDAQ. It is interesting to note that the McClellan Summation
>Index on the both the NYSE and NASDAQ have moved quite close to the
>Summation highs at the all-time highs in each index. I've lost count of the
>number of cycle low projections, including my own, which I've seen for
>October 28-30 so if we don't get a gigantic drop today, there are some
>cycles hanging around we haven't discovered. The most striking aspect of
>this huge rally is the lack of volume and failure of OBV to confirm the
>rally - this is especially noticeable in the S&P futures and SPY. I
continue
>to show the S&P Dec in a wide trading range trending very slightly upward
>between 935-1085, with closes on 10/22 and 10/29 above that range. If we
>don't get a strong thrust today to expand that range significantly, I think
>we can look for pullback to 1020-1040 area.
>
>Earl
Earl, Ben
Granted that there is negative divergence in the McOsc, but given the
seemingly characterisic lengthy lag times for response of prices (weeks to
months - at least from recent historical examples) wherein lies the value of
this divergence as a timing tool in the immediate present/future?
Or, alternatively, are you guys viewing this divergence as an enabling
indicator which sets the stage for the directional move which you don't act
on unless and until your proprietary triggering indicators (which I trust
you will share with the RT brotherhood before Gary makes his next prediction
or Slick Willie is re-elected) signal the exact timing of an entry.
Pearls of wisdom appreciated by all, Ken
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