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Gary in Hawaii-a great contrarian indicator



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A month or so ago i took gary up on his "mass mail list offer" just to
see what he had to say, well he's rolled his puts to november and is
still holding on to whatever is left of his "rent money" as he put it.
My mailbox has been bombarded with long drawn out scenarios of what is
going to happen next in exact detail, with continual "SELL, SELL,
SELL's" every day since the 8th. I got a good laugh the other day when
he said "IF I HAD MONEY I WOULD SELL!!".
To all that defended this guy, Gary is a perfect example of what not
to do, to convince yourself so strongly of a market opinion that you
stubbornly hold on to a losing position. What makes it even worse is
all the bragging and ego tripping making it all the harder to admit
your wrong. Totally unprofessional in my opinion.
Well it looks like Gary's landlord will be paying him a visit this
month, or maybe he'll get another liscense plate tip from beyond.
Anyway, i think i've finally found some value in Gary's posts, he
seems to work as a great contrarian indicator, the louder he yells
"sell!", the more calls i buy, but read below Gary's latest post,
he's finally switching to calls, i think the rally's over folks.

..Jerry..
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From: "Gary Baker" <charlie@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <Undisclosed.Recipients@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: i'm confused:  brazil down 4%, nikkie down another 1%
Date: Thu, 29 Oct 1998 18:05:44 -1000
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Wow,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>brazil continues to fall, down another 4% 
today.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Japan opened up and was up about 150 points only 
to give it all back and close the morning session down over 1%!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>u.s. continues to climb?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>maybe the dow is breaking out to the upside of a 
&quot;bull flag&quot; and is headed to 9000, also, the end of month/beginning, 
and monday coming say's up....i'm seriously considering switching to calls for a 
few days, BUT, as this brazil/japan decline continues, i don't want to miss the 
big drop.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>*Note, the snp vs. nikkei, moved almost the same 
patterns this year, EXCEPT, when we rally, they only rally a day or so then move 
lower.&nbsp; AGAIN, if we take out 12800 in the next few days, and brazil 
continues to tank, we have to drop BIG.....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>gary</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Oct 30 02:01:20 1998
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Reply-To: "David Ellery" <ellery@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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From: "David Ellery" <ellery@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Detrend
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Could someone help me out with buiding a detrend oscillator for
Tradestation. Walter Bressert used to use this indicator for his research
and it was originally built into the Computrac program.
Computrac gave the choice of centred and non-centred moving averages.

Thanks

Dave