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According to a friend of mine at Microsoft, Microsoft did an analysis of
the problem and figured hourly rates for Y2K consultants would peak in Q3
of 2000 at $750/hour (in 1999 dollars!).
Here's the deal. I've written plenty of Y2K non-compliant code over the
last 30 years. I know what to look for. I only charge $500/hour. Sure it
seems steep now, but wait...
Larry Lewis
-----Original Message-----
From: Mark Jurik (reply to: mgj@xxxxxxxxxxxx) [SMTP:mgj@xxxxxxxxxxxx
(US-ASCII) (actually from: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx)]
Sent: Monday, October 19, 1998 10:17 PM
To: realtraders
Subject: Y2K impact?
What effect will Y2K have on the markets?
Here's a collection of report summaries posted elsewhere.....
- Mark Jurik
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----------------
The Social Security Administration has 30,000,000 lines of code to fix.
Four hundred programmers have been working on the problem since 1991, and
had only fixed six million lines after five years of effort. The
Washington
Post
The total cost of fixing the Y2K problem will be between $300 billion and
$600 billion worldwide. The Gartner Group
The total cost of Y2K repairs for the U.S. government is estimated to be
$3.9 billion. Office of Management and Budget (OMB), who also warned the
estimate might be 90% too low
Worldwide economic damage of Y2K will reach $119 billion. When adding the
cost of lawsuits, the total cost could be well over $1 trillion. Business
Week
The FAA has forty vintage IBM model 3083 mainframes. None are compliant
and
they cannot be made compliant because the people who designed them are
either dead or retired. Announcement by IBM, the maker of the computers
(the FAA says they can still make it? bizarre?)
Up to 70% of businesses in Asia will fail outright or experience severe
hardship. Phillip Dodd, a Unisys Y2K expert, as quoted in the Bangkok
Post
The potential for a deep global recession in 2000 is 70%. Dr. Edward
Yardini, the chief economist of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
General Motors has over 100,000 suppliers worldwide, any one of which can
bring their assembly line to a halt.
70% of Chief Information Officers of corporations in America believe
their
companies will not be compliant in time.
The IRS has over 80,000,000 lines of computer code, running in 88,000
programs on 80 mainframe computers. By the end of 1997, they had fixed
2,000 programs, leaving 86,000 to go. The Washington Post
The United States, with over half of all computer capacity and 60% of
Internet assets, is the world's most technology-dependent country. -- GAO
report, Sep 3, 1998
Finding and fixing all the Y2K-affected software will require over
700,000
person-years. Capers Jones, head of Software Productivity Research, a
firm
that tracks programmer productivity
Over a billion embedded chips exist worldwide. An estimated 1% are
susceptible to the Y2K bug. Unfortunately, many critical chips are in
deep-sea drilling rigs, satellites, or other impossible-to-reach
platforms.
Most cars built since 1990 contain over 20 microprocessors.
With just over 500 days left before the new millennium, only 15% of
companies and government agencies expect to have their critical systems
more than three-quarters tested and compliant for year 2000 by Jan. 1,
1999, according to a study released today by IT services firm Cap Gemini
America. Information Week, August 1998
Only 11% of companies in the United States have begun looking at
noncompliant chips (embedded systems). Gartner Group research report
Eastern Europe, Russia, India, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, Japan, most of
South America, most of the Middle East and central Africa all lag the
United States by more than 12 months in their Y2K repairs Gartner Group
analyst Lou Marcoccio in his Y2K status report
47%
of U.S. companies have no answer to the question, 'What will happen
when your embedded systems fail?' Gartner Group research report
As of September 1998, only 23% of U.S. companies had evaluated the effect
of Y2K on their supply chain (the interdependency factor?) Gartner Group
research report
180 billion lines of software code will have to be screened worldwide.
The
Gartner Group
------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------
Projected Y2K Costs: Companies Company Projected Future Costs Source
TOTAL PROJECTED COSTS for the listed companies: $5,065,508,000
British Telecommunications Plc $200,000,000 Computergram International
1/22/97
American Airlines $100,000,000 Congressional Press Release 11/10/97
Depository Trust Co. $25,000,000 Operations Management 1/20/97
Madison Gas & Electric Co. $1,000,000 Capital Times 1/1/97
U. S. West $40,000,000 The Denver Post 2/7/97
USSA $75,000,000 Congressional Press Release 11/10/97
Disk/Trend $8,000 Business Journal - Portland 1/31/97
Federal Express $500,000,000 Broward Daily Business Review 3/21/97
ANZ Company $40,000,000 Deutsche Presse-Agentur 4/14/97
Bezeq $13,000,000 U.P.I 4/14/97
Hertz Corp. $15,000,000 10K 3/25/97
Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. $10,000,000 10K 12/18/96
Cinergy Corp. $12,000,000 10K 3/27/96
LG&E Energy Corp. $12,000,000 10K 3/28/97
Marshall & Ilsley Corp. $25,000,000 10K 3/7/97
Progressive Corp. $4,300,000 10K 3/31/97
Southern National Corp., North Carolina $7,000,000 10K 3/17/97
Southern New England Telephone Co. $15,000,000 10K 3/20/97
Crestar $5,000,000 Roanoke Times and World News 5/11/97
Electronic Data Systems Corp. $144,000,000 The Reuter Business Report
5/28/97
Norfolk Southern Corp. $10,000,000 Roanoke Times & World News 5/11/97
Singapore Telecom $21,000,000 The Straits Times 7/31/97
Tribune Co. $7,000,000 Editor & Publisher Magazine 8/23/97
Telecom $87,000,000 The Press 9/16/97
Picker International Inc. $31,000,000 Crain's Cleveland Business 10/6/97
Experian $25,000,000 Newsbytes 9/24/97
AT&T $500,000,000 Texas Lawyer 11/10/97
Dayton Hudson $14,000,000 Supermarket News 10/27/97
GTE $150,000,000 Congressional Press Release 11/10/97
MCI $150,000,000 Texas Lawyer 11/10/97
Sabre $40,000,000 The Dallas Morning News 10/16/97
Telstra Corp. $500,000,000 AAP Newsfeed 11/6/97
DHL Worldwide Express $25,000,000 Computergram International 12/1/97
Advanced Marketing Services, San Diego $500,000 BP Report 12/8/97
CSX Corp. $40,000,000 The Tennessean 1/4/98
Ames Department Stores Inc. $2,000,000 Reuters
FirstEnergy Corp. $72,000,000 Crain's Cleveland Business
Domtar $5,000,000 The Ottawa Citizen
Amoco Corp. $100,000,000 Atlanta Business Chronicle
KeyCorp $40,000,000 Crain's Cleveland Business
American Greetings Corp. $35,000,000 Crain's Cleveland Business
First Commercial Corp. of Little Rock $10,000,000 Business Dateline;
Arkansas Business
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. $22,000,000 Business Dateline; Arkansas Business
Unilever $500,000,000 Journal of Commerce
Ottawa-Carleton Regional Transit Commission $4,600,000 The Ottawa
Citizen
BCE Inc. $450,000,000 The Gazette
Hydro-Quebec $60,000,000 The Gazette
Bell Helicopter Textron Canada $1,100,000 The Gazette
Raymond James & Associates $5,000,000 St. Petersburg Times
Florida Power $10,000,000 St. Petersburg Times
Reuters $200,000,000 Daily Mail
Georgia-Pacific $55,000,000 Atlanta Journal Constitution
Ameritech Corp. $200,000,000 Reuters
Bell Atlantic Corporation $300,000,000 Richmond Times Dispatch
Dominion Resources $150,000,000 Richmond Times Dispatch
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