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I previously subscribed to another forum composed almost exclusively of
wavers, and an extremely high proportion (more than 90%) of the posts have
been calling for a crash for weeks. Today I unsubscribed the other forum.
My reference in my earlier RT post was not intended to be offensive to
anyone or to be derisive to the use of any one approach as part of an
overall analytic strategy - I am simply stating a fact founded on
overwhelming truth. Be aware though, anyone who relies exclusively (read:
blindly) on one method or indicator in making decisions is better off not
quitting their day job. For an interpretation to be as wrong as that of a
broad spectrum of wave theorists and for so many of them to have lost their
shorts (figuratively) in the recent rally simply confirms that a good number
of them use the method exclusively, without the slightest regard for news
and other non-Elliott technical indicators which DO in fact influence market
direction and timing.
If you made the right interpretation of market direction, good for you! It
is my firm conviction though, that in the search for the single golden egg
of forecasting techniques many Elliotters neglect to realize that their
approach is not used exclusively by all market participants; therefore it is
NOT a self-fulfilling prophecy. There is no golden egg.
-----Original Message-----
From: steven poser <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, October 19, 1998 11:05 AM
Subject: Re: Crash??????
>Depends on how u look at Elliott. I have never called for a crash. I
>still think another leg lower is possible, but we will not see much
>lower than we have already been, at least not until a year from now or
>so... There are some folks who use another version of Elliott on this
>forum that will really get their backs up for that comment.
>
>Steve Poser
>
>Szilassy wrote:
>>
>> It's easy to be a bear when the crowd is shouting crash. The crash
scenario
>> has been in the making by Elliott wave theorists and others for some time
>> now, but the market's developments in recent weeks (plural intended) have
>> only served to underscore the implausibility of the scenario. Yes, money
>> has been pouring out of mutual funds (http://www.amgdata.com/) and yes,
>> Greenspan's timing of the rate cut leads one to be suspicious, but many
>> important technical (http://decisionpoint.com/DownloadFiles/MktSumm.html)
>> and sentiment (http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm) indicators are
giving
>> strong bullish signs. With the Dow comfortably past its several-week
8200
>> resistance level, broader market indicators continuing to affirm an
uptrend,
>> self-interested crash scenario artists getting increasingly nervous by
the
>> day, the Asian flu showing signs of being at bottom, and the probability
of
>> further rate cuts in the near-term - everything lays the foundation for
the
>> alarmists getting proved wrong.... again.
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Joe Frabosilio <joe6964@xxxxxxxx>
>> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Monday, October 19, 1998 10:22 AM
>> Subject: GEN: Crash??????
>>
>> >Hello everyone,
>> >
>> >I have a question, I'm noticeing what I think is a repeat in history for
>> >the market. Last week the Fed unexpectly dropped rates, on Friday
>> >rumors were spreading that Bankers Trust and BankAmerica have finanical
>> >woes. The comparison is 1987 when the Saving and Loan system was in
>> >trouble and the Fed came in and saved the S&L. A few weeks later the
>> >market crashed. In 1930 the Bank of the United States Fails,1931 the
>> >Bank Panic,1933 FDR closes banks.
>> >
>> >Does anyone agree or disagree that the market might be in for a major
>> >crash?
>> >
>> >Source: IBD
>> >"Also, with T-Bill yields trading at there 4 1/2 year lows, reason
>> >traders rushed to safety of short term government debt amid rumors of
>> >more bleeding at hedge funds and , perhaps, some damaged banks. Those
>> >FEARS, and fresh data that show a weaker economy, have many thinking
>> >that the Fed will cut interest rates again-soon."
>> >
>> >
>> >Below is copied from Investors business daily newspaper, 10/19/98, page
>> >A2
>> >
>> >"Bankers Trust denies Street rumors that its having finanical
>> >difficulties, A company spokesman pronounced BT in "sound financial
>> >condition" after rumors dragged down its stock 5 1/2 to 51 3/8. Rumors
>> >had the bank borrowing funds at Federal Reserve Bank of New York's
>> >discount window, which extends emergency credits. The rumor was also
>> >discounted by Goldman Sachs banking analyst Robert Albertson. BT has
>> >been hurt by global financial turmoil."
>> >
>> >"BankAmerica said the loan to troubled hedge fund DE Shaw &Co. and its
>> >investments in Russian government bonds helped knock almost $1billion
>> >off its bottom line. And a new report says BankAmerica knew as early as
>> >August of the trading woes at Shaw."
>> >
>> >Trade Well,
>> >Joe Frabosilio
>> >
>> >
>
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