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Depends on how u look at Elliott. I have never called for a crash. I
still think another leg lower is possible, but we will not see much
lower than we have already been, at least not until a year from now or
so... There are some folks who use another version of Elliott on this
forum that will really get their backs up for that comment.
Steve Poser
Szilassy wrote:
>
> It's easy to be a bear when the crowd is shouting crash. The crash scenario
> has been in the making by Elliott wave theorists and others for some time
> now, but the market's developments in recent weeks (plural intended) have
> only served to underscore the implausibility of the scenario. Yes, money
> has been pouring out of mutual funds (http://www.amgdata.com/) and yes,
> Greenspan's timing of the rate cut leads one to be suspicious, but many
> important technical (http://decisionpoint.com/DownloadFiles/MktSumm.html)
> and sentiment (http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm) indicators are giving
> strong bullish signs. With the Dow comfortably past its several-week 8200
> resistance level, broader market indicators continuing to affirm an uptrend,
> self-interested crash scenario artists getting increasingly nervous by the
> day, the Asian flu showing signs of being at bottom, and the probability of
> further rate cuts in the near-term - everything lays the foundation for the
> alarmists getting proved wrong.... again.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Joe Frabosilio <joe6964@xxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Monday, October 19, 1998 10:22 AM
> Subject: GEN: Crash??????
>
> >Hello everyone,
> >
> >I have a question, I'm noticeing what I think is a repeat in history for
> >the market. Last week the Fed unexpectly dropped rates, on Friday
> >rumors were spreading that Bankers Trust and BankAmerica have finanical
> >woes. The comparison is 1987 when the Saving and Loan system was in
> >trouble and the Fed came in and saved the S&L. A few weeks later the
> >market crashed. In 1930 the Bank of the United States Fails,1931 the
> >Bank Panic,1933 FDR closes banks.
> >
> >Does anyone agree or disagree that the market might be in for a major
> >crash?
> >
> >Source: IBD
> >"Also, with T-Bill yields trading at there 4 1/2 year lows, reason
> >traders rushed to safety of short term government debt amid rumors of
> >more bleeding at hedge funds and , perhaps, some damaged banks. Those
> >FEARS, and fresh data that show a weaker economy, have many thinking
> >that the Fed will cut interest rates again-soon."
> >
> >
> >Below is copied from Investors business daily newspaper, 10/19/98, page
> >A2
> >
> >"Bankers Trust denies Street rumors that its having finanical
> >difficulties, A company spokesman pronounced BT in "sound financial
> >condition" after rumors dragged down its stock 5 1/2 to 51 3/8. Rumors
> >had the bank borrowing funds at Federal Reserve Bank of New York's
> >discount window, which extends emergency credits. The rumor was also
> >discounted by Goldman Sachs banking analyst Robert Albertson. BT has
> >been hurt by global financial turmoil."
> >
> >"BankAmerica said the loan to troubled hedge fund DE Shaw &Co. and its
> >investments in Russian government bonds helped knock almost $1billion
> >off its bottom line. And a new report says BankAmerica knew as early as
> >August of the trading woes at Shaw."
> >
> >Trade Well,
> >Joe Frabosilio
> >
> >
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