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Re: [Doom and Gloom Dow Industrials Forecast]


  • To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Subject: Re: [Doom and Gloom Dow Industrials Forecast]
  • From: Steve Schnake <schnake1@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 23:18:11 -0400 (EDT)
  • In-reply-to: <075f01bdf7af$85583590$4d2a42cf@xxxx-01>

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Whoa, Does the Fed trade stock index futures contracts??
I thought they were suppose to control monetary policy.

Steve

At 01:55 PM 10/14/98 -0600, Earl Adamy wrote:
>IMHO, the Fed's been getting practice - I've seen at least 4 days since Sept
>1 where the Fed's footprints appear to be all over the intraday charts. When
>the spoo runs up 30 points from a pivot low in an hour with zilch change in
>a/d issues and a/d volume, it's a reasonable bet that the Fed's been
>supporting the market by buying futures - far cheaper/easier to do than
>buying stocks. I think this is intended to keep the shorts from getting too
>aggressive.
>
>Earl
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: steven poser <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Wednesday, October 14, 1998 9:22 AM
>Subject: Re: [Doom and Gloom Dow Industrials Forecast]
>
>
>>Mitch -
>>
>>That is a point worth noting, but outside of this list and those that
>>follow the astrology guys, I do not think everybody else is truly
>>looking for the capitulation trade on Black Monday's anniversary. Though
>>Acampora downgraded his targets, many of the big street technicians
>>believe that we have put in a bottom for at least another month.
>>
>>The other thing to be aware of is that if the market does blow up by
>>500-1000 points in a day, it will require some action from the Fed to
>>make people stick their feet in the water. Every try catching a falling
>>knife? People will not just jump in without a good reason. How many
>>times have you said that you will buy when something gets to a certain
>>level, and then did not (unless you are real disciplined or already had
>>the trade in, or were smart enough to be short into that level).
>>
>>I do believe that the capitulation trade will be met with a rate cut and
>>that a bottom will be in soon, but I would not count on the views in
>>this forum as being universal.
>>
>>Steve
>
>