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Keith Dennis wrote:
>
> RT'ers:
>
> Did the 2 local guys in the OJ pits read some of "GARY IN HAWAII"
> old RT Email's from last month or something ???? What the heck was
> up with this market today ...... NOV98 up 25.75 ? But not the rest
> of them.....hello!!! Maybe Gary bought a couple of contracts today
> or something and drove the demand right on up there ???
>
> Freeze warnings came in early this year ??? Or just trying to catch
> a few shorts off guard today were they ??? Now you know why you
> should stay away from these thin little markets .... huh ??? I guess
> they wanted in on some of that "Blood in the Streets" going on
> recently like the big boys ??? And they say manipulated market don't
> exist ..... ya right !!!
>
>
Crop report from the USDA happens to have oj numbers tucked away in it
too. It's easy (at least for me) to forget that. The crop numbers were
much lower than expected, acc. to Bridge.
Nov., being the front month, either has no limits, or greatly expanded
limits. The non-spot ctcts. have a 5c limit it appears. Nov. still is
the most active month. The deferreds ended locked limit up with little
trade occurring during the day, it appears. A couple more limit moves
may be in store for them?
Oj is a pretty illiquid mkt. from what I hear, but today probably isn't
manipulation. However, it appears essentially no trade occurred in the
Nov. until the mkt was at 131-135, up 30c; then the mkt had a big 5-min
range of 120-130 then settled down around 122-126 (approx. #'s taken
from quote.com, not tic charts). I do wonder if oj's lack of liquidity
didn't cause that big "over-reaction" at the beginning, but it could
happen in any mkt.
A lesson that most veteran traders already know can be learned from
this, and that's how big a move a mkt. can suddenly make if there's a
reason, even if it has been quiet. While in this case one might have
had some warning of the possibility, knowing the crop report date, its'
worth remembering that any mkt. can do this at any time and the only
prevention is to trade small enough that unforseen/uncontrollable risk
doesn't completely wipe you out. Well, unless you are big enough to
merit a bailout.....
Conrad Bowers
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