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> From: charles meyer <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
> To: HARELSDB@xxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: GEN:Using S&P Futures to predict S&P Moves
> Date: Wednesday, September 16, 1998 8:35 AM
>
> Mornin' Dan and Group:
>
> I have sat at my screen for the past several years and would like to
> know the answer to that question myself. The more experienced
> SnP traders (futures are not my specialty) can correct my statements
> about this but my perception is that one of the keys is in analysis of
> the premium. A lot of times the futures will go to a premium which
> results in the cash market playing catch-up; or rather a coincidental
> move. Unless you are actually on the floor it is probably next to
> impossible to profit from the difference or resulting differences on a
> very short term basis. Often, you will see the futures ticking at a
> premium to cash accompanied by little upside movement in the cash
> market. That has told me that the insiders are buying futures in an
> effort to manipulate the cash market higher so they can unload and
> go short. The invese relationship sometimes occurs at market
> bottoms. Let me correct myself here by adding that what I am re-
> ferring to are the levels at which buy and sell programs enter the
market.
> Perhaps the essence of this concept can be captured by looking for
> divergences between premium and cash. A head scratching product of
> this exercise is that I have seen sell programs enter the futures market
> accompanied by the cash market not going lower. (like yesterday).
> Basically, I have typed a lot of words, but I don't have any easier
> answers. If there was a way for us to ascertain the MOTIVES behind
> the buy and sell programs as they hit the market we could better
> judge the effort and results from a more accurate perspective of the
> true supply demand equation; but this further begs the question.
> Perhaps some of the more experienced traders can jump in on this
> thread. I recall someone posting web pages which specialize in this
> area but don't have that information.
>
> Charles.
> ----------
> > From: HARELSDB@xxxxxxx
> > To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: GEN:Using S&P Futures to predict S&P Moves
> > Date: Wednesday, September 16, 1998 12:03 AM
> >
> > How are fluctuations in the S&P 500 futures market related in time and
> > magnitude to fluctuations in the S&P 500 cash market? In other words,
> are
> > futures traders good or bad at predicting the future and is there a
> simple way
> > to analyze the futures market to predict the cash market?
> >
> > Thanks
> > Dan
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