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steven poser <swp@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> If you use 9.5% from the 1932 crash lows, you would get the dow now
> at 16460. If you use the 12% inBob's piece, then it is 73,029. If
> you use 8%, then you get 6623.
Yes, the 12% Bob used in his study is for 81-98, which was an almost
uninterrupted bull market. Based on Steven's figures, it sounds like
8-8.5% is valid for the looong haul since 1932.
I wonder: Looking at the 8-8.5% rise since 1932, does the market
normally drop back to the 8-8.5% line after extended bull runs?
If so, we could be looking at the possibility of a much larger drop
than the ~6000 figure suggested by Bob's chart...
Gary
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