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<DIV>FOLKS, I MADE AN ERROR IN PROJECTION FOR DOW. LAUNCH PERIOD FOR "THE
BULL"<BR>WILL BE IN 5-6 MONTHS FROM NOW, NOT 20 AS STATED YTD. THE ERROR
WAS AN<BR>HONEST ONE.(BUTTERFINGERS)<BR>PETER<BR></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Sep 10 17:08:30 1998
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From: steven poser <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Crashes
References: <199809102224.QAA11863@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Gary -
I do not have time to try to get the chart to transfer over to email,
but I played around a bit with the numbers. If you use 8% growth, prices
stayed above that line almost all the way from 1932 until 1974, then
stayed below it from 1970 until 1995. It tested back down to the line in
1942, 1949 and rose along it from about 1970 to 1974. (The dates are
approximate as I am eyeballing the chart.) Based on that idea, and given
demographics, etc, I would not expect the market to be ready to spend
any quality time below that line.
Steve
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