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LOWRISK.COM
INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY
8 / 31 / 98
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Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow" sentiment survey. The
survey was taken from 8/24 through 8/30 on our web site.
Number of participants: 366
30 day outlook:
35% bullish, 31% last week
58% bearish, 54% last week
8% neutral, 15% last week
(percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding)
Median guess for the DJIA closing value on Friday, 9/4: 8150 (it was 8542
last week). More complete sentiment data is available at
<http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm> .
Several things stand out in this weeks sentiment numbers. First off, it
seems like everyone has an opinion. The neutral sentiment is at 8%, the
lowest we have ever seen. In fact that is the lowest reading we have ever
had of any kind - bull, bear, or neutral. The second thing that jumps out
is the extremely high bearish reading of 58%. That is also a record, as is
the 5 week moving average of bears at 51%. The third thing that jumps out
at is that bullish sentiment actually increased last week, from 31% to 35%.
That is very surprising after a week in which the DJIA dropped 482 points
(the largest weekly point drop in history).
So we have a couple of things pulling in different directions. More bulls
after a very poor performance argue for more downside, while a record
number of bears argue for a rally. It looks like it might be a tug of war
this week, and that very low neutral number seems to confirm a choppy week
ahead.
To try this week's contest, stop by: http://www.lowrisk.com/guess.htm
More sentiment data is at: http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm
best regards,
Jeff Walker
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http://www.lowrisk.com
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