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AIQ has issued 6 BUY signals in the past 13 days, 4 of which have come in
the last 4 days. All buy signals are considered equal and none is more
powerful than any other buy signal. A buy is one that the ER is = or > 95.
NONE of the 6 signals have been confirmed by the Price Phase Indicator
(PPI). This is a must. So we are presently on a Confirmed Sell Signal from
7-21-98. Advance Decline Indicator and HI/Lo indicators have been breaking
down since Mid-April 98. These two indicators continue to decline. The AIQ
signals are indicating that the market will move higher but we need to see a
signal confirmed by the PPI. The market is ALWAYS RIGHT and AIQ at this
point is attempting to pick rally points.
This has been one of those "sandpaper" declines. Just a little rub here,
and a little rub there and eventually you are down a lot. Many (repeat
many) stocks have been in their own bear markets for some time. Notice that
each day there is a different major stock & sector hit and the damage
continues for 2-3 days. Rallies in these hit areas are anemic. This next
rally needs to show a marked increase in the Advance Decline indicator and
the new Hi/Lo indicator. Otherwise in my opinion, the rally will fail
miserably and then we make new lows on the major market indexes.
The CRB index is at a multi year low indicating to me a deflationary
period. This is also seen in Gold and Gold Mutual Funds. This deflationary
period will be good for bonds and thus the rush to quality in bonds and the
lower bond yeilds. A good fundamentalist friend of mine expects 30yr bond
yields at 4%. This whole senario will be detrimental to the stock market
and possibly put us in a bear market situation.
My opinion: Sell into any rallies (assuming we get one). Utilites and
utilities MF's go up in this environment.
-----Original Message-----
From: John Sweeney S&C <JSweeney@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Friday, August 14, 1998 11:39 AM
Subject: Haven't heard from you in a while
What do you make of this last series of strong buy signals from AIQ?
John
John Sweeney, Tech. Editor Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities
Technical Analysis, Inc. The Traders' Magazine
4757 California Ave. S.W. Phone: 206 938-0570 Fax: 206 938-1307
Seattle, WA 98116-4499 USA Web: http://www.traders.com/
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Contents may not reflect official opinion of Technical Analysis, Inc.
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