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Hi Ben,
I'm curious as the methodology you are using to reach the conclusion we
will only have short term rallies but no close higher than 550 basis the
NYA. I don't know if we have bottomed and will begin at least a 50%
retracement back up (according to Robert Miner we have never had a bear
market without a 50 to 62% retracement of the first leg down), or we drop
another few hundred points first.
I do know we are showing some of the most oversold technical readings in
years and even if we are in a bear market I would not be surprised to see
one hell of a rally pretty soon. I am basing this on chart analysis
(primarily Elliott Wave) and technical stuff such as simple things like
moving averages of advancing issues and declining issues, a spread of the
adv/decl line, trin, tick, etc.
Since you appear to be rather sure of your prediction how about explaining
how it was derived.
Regards,
Tom Alexander
----------
> From: Proffittak@xxxxxxx
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: DJII
> Date: Tuesday, August 11, 1998 6:27 PM
>
> In a message dated 98-08-11 14:28:45 EDT, you write:
>
> << Looking at the hourly Dow Jones cash.....it looks to have completed a
5
> wave
> decline from the all-time high.....IF this move down doesn't keep
> sub-dividing...THEN we can
> expect a retracement to the 8850-8950 area before the waterfall decline
> starts..........
>
> During this rally phase you should hear the Ralph's and Joe's on CNBC
> talking about
> how this was just a normal correction in a bull market.....this rally
phase
> >>
> hi
> my forcast for the end of this move down put it @502-504 on nyse
close
> ,
> this is 475 to 550 dow points lower,
> yes we will have some short term rallies but not higher then 546-550
nya
> close
> happy trading
> Ben
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