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Re: E Wave, Common sense



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Chris - 

His approach to EWave is pretty much my approach, so he's got to be
good. You must always go from the bottom up and I use tick charts. Alot
of people say that Elliott does not work intraday. I think it is the
only way to trade intraday. Indicators are a joke. They are too slow and
there is too much noise intraday for them to work, but when patterns
develop, you can get good entries and exits from the waves (now if only
I had the gumption to listen to my own advice).

As for his chart, I disagree in only one sense. THat prediction suggests
that the September bottom, or something close to it, might very well be
the extent of this bear move since he is suggesting an a-b-c flat by
having wave-A as only three waves. I believe wave-A ends soon as a five
wave fall with the dow near 8100. From there we get the B-wave that
could even lead us to small new highs. Then, WATCH OUT. Wave-c should
take the Dow into the mid-6000s at least over the next year or so. This
is what I think.

My speccialty though is bonds. Look for them to halt their recent rally
near the June highs (though I would not be a buyer here). Then, during
the next rally in stocks, bonds should drop at least to the mid-120s,
maybe even to 118 or so. After that, yields will slump to new lows as
stocks collapse and we enter a recession.

This is my road map. Ed Yardeni would love me.

Steve