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What, you mean I'm not nuts!
Thanks Ross
John Stevenson
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> From: Kovacs, Ross R <KOVACSRR@xxxxxxx>
> To: 'johnstev@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
> Subject: FW: MKT-Elliot Wave textbook case?
> Date: Thursday, August 06, 1998 10:34 AM
>
> Although I take EW analysis with a grain of salt:
>
> 1. Yes, it is valid to go even shorter than one day. However, the
analysis
> should always progress from long time frames (years or even decades
> according to Prechter) to however short a time frame as you want. This
is
> good advice for any technical analysis, not just EW.
> 2. Your analysis of the charts matches the analysis of several respected
EW
> analysts. In fact, a local Los Angeles EW analyst is showing hourly
charts
> of the DJIA that he says are perfect EW formations that confirm the
> conclusions you've drawn. So, a sea change is in place according to many.
>
> Ross Kovacs
> > ----------
> > From: John Stevenson[SMTP:johnstev@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Wednesday, August 05, 1998 1:34 PM
> > To: realtraders
> > Cc: John Stevenson
> > Subject: MKT-Elliot Wave textbook case?
> >
> > RTers:
> > I would like you all to know that I greatly value the opportunity to
> > "listen in" on the various comments and opinions expressed via the RT
> > Disscussion group. As a relative newbie to trading (I've been intensely
> > observing Mkts for about 2 yrs., and actively position trading for
about 9
> > months), I can say that this group has been invaluable to me as a
"mentor"
> > (of sorts), as one of many sources of wide ranging opinion, and as an
> > encouragement to begin wading into the ocean of TA. To wit: I recently
> > began the online Elliot Wave course at EW International. It's surely
too
> > early yet for me to embark on my own analysis from scratch, but my
efforts
> > are starting to bear a little fruit, I think...when I looked at the
daily
> > chart for last friday, it looked to me like an example right off the
text
> > page of a classic 5 wave pattern, except (importantly?) the pattern was
> > moving down instead of up, ie: lower lows and lower highs.
> >
> > My questions to the group are:
> >
> > 1. Granted the the Ewave is fractal in nature, but is it meaningful to
> > look
> > at patterns as short as one day?
> >
> > 2. If the observation is valid, could it be yet another indication that
> > the
> > fundamental psycology of the market has undergone a sea change?
> >
> > In any case, today's DJIA price action would seem to indicate that the
> > "buy
> > on the dips" crowd is conspicuously absent from the mkt. this time
around.
> >
> > For what it's worth, this looks, to my novice eye, like a RE-EMERGENCE
of
> > a
> > lower low-lower high trend that appeared briefly in (about) 11/97 or
12/97
> > (I'm working from memory), which I believe has been this markets true
> > character all along. That trend has been distorted by the tsunami of
cash
> > we have seen in what I like to call the "Hyper-liquidity" mkt of recent
> > months. Is it possible that that's where the true support is (ie: ~7500
> > and
> > not 8200 or 8500 as I've heard stated here and elsewhere)?
> >
> > Well, food for thought perhaps, but it seems to me a high probability
that
> > the time where pyramid shorting becomes a sensible strategy is just
around
> > the next corner on the DJIA. Definitely time for eyes and ears to be
wide
> > open, always time for caution.
> >
> > Kudos to those who called for a top in July 24-28 timeframe, looks like
> > you
> > MAY be right! Keep up the fine work, RTers, I for one need your input!
> >
> > John Stevenson
> > Ottawa, Canada
> >
> > P.S. I hereby pledge NEVER to delve into the political arena on the RT
> > Group again!
> >
> >
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