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It may be a bit hard to see from the long term chart, however the McOsc based on
_weekly_ a/d crossed below 0 on August 28, nearly two full months before the
crash and did not cross back above 0 until well after the crash. Further, the
non-confirmations are evident in both the weekly McOsc and McSum which both put
in lower pivot highs even as price put in higher pivot highs. Finally, the
failure of price to pull back to the 30 week ma during the summer correction
indicated that the rally which followed would fail. I prefer to use the weekly
a/d numbers from Barron's for evaluatin intermediate to long term market health.
As for recent action, I make no forecasts, however I've been watching for a
rally since Thursday's open. Nothing has been able to hold and I think that the
market's inability to mount a decent rally from such a steep decline is rather
ominous. Nor do I like the extent to which both the transports and the utilities
have headed south. The only part of the market which looks relatively healthier
(but still sick) is the NASDAQ composite a/d so I'll be watching it closely to
see if breadth can broaden out.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Donald Thompson <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sunday, August 02, 1998 11:09 PM
Subject: Re: MKT - DJIA87 Health
>Earl,
>
>The thing that I see different is that right before the '87 crash the
>McClellen Osc was in positive territory. The way it stands now.. That
>same oscillator is buried deep in -100 territory.. roughly equivilent to
>where it stood in '87 post crash. If anything,
>the market is really due for a rally outa there.. Perhaps that is what
>you are implying with your red trend line .. McClellen Osc to rally to
>the 50% line then.... A swan dive.
>
>The market will do what its gonna do... This dance around the 50 period
>MA is more than a little disconcerting, all other bottoms have been
>Vee's This is different
>
>Regards,
>
>Don
>
>
>Earl Adamy wrote:
>>
>> >From what I could see, it appears that the Crash mode did not occur until
after
>> the 87 decline. Here's a weekly chart of NYSE showing the McClellan
oscillator
>> based on weekly advance declines, the McClellan Summation, and a histogram
based
>> on the difference between the 30wma and close. All 3 warned of impending
>> disaster 1-2 months prior to the 87 crash. The signals are similar today.
>>
>> Earl
>.
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