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LOWRISK.COM
INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY
8 / 3 / 98
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Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow" sentiment survey. The
survey was taken from 7/27 through 8/2 on our web site.
Number of participants: 391
30 day outlook:
22 % bullish, 23% last week
44 % bearish, 45% last week
34 % neutral, 32% last week
(percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding)
Median guess for the DJIA closing value on Friday, 8/7: 8902 (it was 9041
last week). More complete sentiment data is available at
<http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm> .
Sentiment was almost unchanged last week. The bulls and bears each gave up
1% and the neutral camp gained 2%. Last week the market was very volatile
with the DJIA ending down 54 points for the week. The bullish reading of
22% was a new all time low, although by a very slim margin. This was the
second consecutive week for a new all time low bullish reading. Still with
the volatility and the drop last week, we would have expected to see more
bears and a bigger drop in the bulls.
As we said last week, these are very low bullish readings and would seem to
contain some fuel for a rally. But the bearish readings, while certainly
high, do not suggest any real capitulation or fear. We would like to see
some of that neutral camp jump over into the bears before we got REALLY
excited about looking for a bounce.
To try this week's contest, stop by: http://www.lowrisk.com/guess.htm
More sentiment data is at: http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm
best regards,
Jeff Walker
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http://www.lowrisk.com
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