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I just finished John Galbriath's "The Great Crash 1929" published in
1947. A friend in the physical commodity trading business mailed me his
copy. Very interesting 1st hand analysis. You might find it in a
library, definitely not a current reseller anywhere.
In response to short selling in a crashing market-----
I do agree that there will be the profits made from shorting the
market if/when a break occurs. Then a time will come when basically the
whole popular attitude will become angry with those who are making money
on the short side(i.e. driving the market down, destroying our
economy-country, who's at fault??, YOU!!!).
I wish I could remember our RT member who gave us a short synopsis of
the Asian crisis he was seeing first hand. His observation was ditto on
the adverse emotional climate that arose. One must find someone to
blame. Someone drove the market down.
In response to circuit breakers arresting the tide of a market-----
Richard Nixon tried to stablize consumer prices. Anyone remember???
Price fixing at the government level did not work. Jimmy Carter just
smiled at it. It must have been a good joke, inflation and everything.
Why would the Exchanges succeed in stablizing a fall in prices? I
would argue with the concept that daily limits will control anything.
Pork Bellies have been known to close the limit multiple days in a row.
The limit did not, in my opinion, do anything but extend the time
involved to reach the price extreme intended by the participants. I
currently have a position in this one. A favorable one I might add.
It always gives me the willies when I trade this market.
And as for going against the flow----
Not willing to. I put the money down in an attempt to go with the
flow. Made a 9030 to 9398 buy/exit on the DJU week before last. Now I
see a sell opportunity approaching within the week.
There have been times, one stretch this spring, when nothing I was doing
was with the FLOW. This was not willingly done. It might be said to be
willfully done. No, Self-will run riot more aptly describes my runs of
,shall we say, bad luck and no luck at all.
Peter2150@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
> In a message dated 98-07-26 14:03:15 EDT, arnoldt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
>
> > What I am really after are actual, physical, real live action tangibles
> > to be exploited in the event the Future Markets/Shorting become as
> > discredited and possibly unfunctional as a crash could deliver.
>
> I think you are trying to fight the flow. In the event of a crash, even the
> real live action tangibles are likely to be pulled down. Assuming you can
> time it the smart move is to go with the flow. The likely hood that shorting
> futures will become as you put it discredited is very very unlikely. Look at
> the CME circuit breakers in place. Going to take a pretty good crash just to
> trip them. Short stocks could get tough, because of the uptick rule, but
> shorting futures and buying puts should be a very viable option.
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