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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Ultimately.. P/E, money supply, etc, etc.
financials provide expectations based on historically observed
correlations. For example, what OBJECTIVE reason is there for an
equity to trade at 20, or 50, or 100, or even simply ONE times cash value?
Of course, there IS no "Objective" reason.... just that this is what
has been the TENDENCY.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Market Sentiment ALWAYS (I just can't think of a
more sufficiently strong word) determines the market's behaviours. If, at
the very least, in how it is affected by the above mentioned ratios and
statistics.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Historical tendencies observed around the publicly
communicated news and commentary have been charted and measured, and are often
commonly known as Contrarian Analysis. That is, that whatever the general
public tends to believe "En Masse" will ultimately cause the opposite
to occur in the markets.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The observation (being responded to here) is
that the media and market-pundits appear to be calling for a correction, or even
a crash, and this would indicate that indeed a "crash" is even LESS
likely to currently occur. Yet, according to popularly accepted
correlations to financial (fundamental) statistics, the markets are dramatically
overbloated... So what's to be expected?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>My thought is that although it SEEMS that the buzz is on about
an impending crash... "Joe Public" isn't really buying the news.
Check out the Put/Call ratios for the last 2 weeks... the public isn't
flinching, and there are relatively VERY few Puts being traded... showing that
the drunks are walking on a high-wire, but THINK they're 2 feet off the
floor! This has been even MORE surprisingly true in the last 3-4 days...
AMAZING!!! </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>With the market pundits filling the mental background with
warnings and fear... WHEN the public figures out that means THEM, they'll storm
their IRA's and Mutual Funds, causing what the media will call "Programmed
Trading" like few have ever seen.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>When? Dunno. Depends how long the drunks can keep
their balance. One thing is for sure, more money can be made, faster, when
"panic hits" if you're prepared financially and emotionally, than in
any comparable Bull or Cyclical market.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT color=#000000>Profitably</FONT>,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>David Donhoff</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>peter <<A
href="mailto:derivatives@xxxxxxxxxxx";>derivatives@xxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>RealTraders Discussion Group <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Saturday, July 25, 1998 2:09 AM<BR><B>Subject: </B>CRASH !!!!!
...?????<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000
size=2>
Never have I heard so many market commentators speculate at roughtly the
same period of time,, that the US equity market will fall considerably &
to an extent crash. One would think that a crash or even crashette would
come along when market pschycology is extremely positive, with only a few ,
but non-vocal predictions of a substantial fall. Sure market
corrections & blips will come & go, & turn into periods of
consolidation etc, but thats all in the general scheme of things.
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>
The crux of the matter is, Can a crash occurr if everybody knows about it
???</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> Focusing just on the
"market sentiment"/"pschycology" aspect & not the
fundamentals such as P/E, moneysupply growth, etc I would
appreciate comments , use your reply to all button.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000
size=2>
regards Peter</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000
size=2>
Krueger Klage Derivatives</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000
size=2>
Sydney Australia. </FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Date: Sat, 25 Jul 1998 12:48:15 -0600
Reply-To: brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx
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From: "BrentinUtahsDixie" <brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: cluck cluck
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I have wondered why there aren't regularly traded contracts of some things
like steel or concrete, or maybe gypsum.
Brent
----------
> From: Richard <rjb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: cluck cluck
> Date: Saturday, July 25, 1998 11:33 AM
>
> No...seriously.
>
> The whole discussion on why markets exist brought a very serious question
> to mind.
>
> We have fairly active markets in the areas of beef and pork, but chicken
is
> also something a lot of people eat.
>
> Yes, I know, there's a contract somewhere for chicken (I think they call
it
> "broilers"), but why isn't it traded much?
>
> Wouldn't chicken farmers and those who use chickens in production want to
> use forward contracts for hedges? Or is the market too dominated by just
a
> few producers? (Perdue and Tyson come to mind)
>
> Just something I've been wondering about.
>
> -RB
>
>
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